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fxJun 9, 2026, 6:49 AM

Commerzbank: Russian Ruble's Oil-Driven Gains May Fade by Year-End

Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose warns that recent ruble support from high oil prices is likely to diminish towards year-end, while the central bank has adjusted EUR/RUB pricing methodology amid thin hard-currency trading.

USDRUB

Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose notes that Russia's central bank has shifted EUR/RUB pricing to derive from USD/RUB, a move taken despite low hard-currency liquidity.

Recent oil revenue strength—with Urals crude averaging around $90 per barrel in April and May—has been supporting the ruble. However, the bank sees this oil-driven momentum fading into year-end as global factors shift.

The analysis suggests that the ruble's temporary boost from high crude prices is unlikely to persist, leaving the currency vulnerable to a downturn.

Source: FXStreet Forex News