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fxJun 19, 2026, 1:57 PM

ING: Burnham Win Paves Way for UK PM Transition, Upside Risk to EUR/GBP

ING's Francesco Pesole notes that Andy Burnham's by-election win positions him as next UK PM, with betting markets expecting a transition by late summer. The lack of political risk premium in pound assets implies limited fiscal impact, posing upside risk to EUR/GBP.

EURGBP

ING foreign exchange strategist Francesco Pesole points to Andy Burnham's by-election victory as a clear signal that the Labour politician is on track to become the next UK prime minister. Betting markets now anticipate a leadership transition by late summer, according to Pesole.

Despite the looming political change, the British pound continues to trade without a political risk premium. This suggests investors see limited fiscal consequences from the transition. Pesole warns that this lack of pricing could create an upside risk for the EUR/GBP pair.

Key takeaway: the market's neutral stance on GBP may leave it vulnerable as the political timeline firms up, potentially driving euro strength against sterling.

Source: FXStreet Forex News