US Economic Surprise Index Hits 63.2, Highest Since August 2023
The US Economic Surprise Index reached 63.2 points, the highest since August 2023, driven by a string of strong economic data beats including jobs, ISM PMIs, and factory orders.
The US Economic Surprise Index has climbed to 63.2 points, marking its highest level since August 2023. The index measures how economic data performs relative to consensus estimates—turning positive when data beats expectations and negative when it falls short.
Over the past seven weeks, the index has surged by 57.6 points, the largest such gain since the first quarter of 2022. The move has been fueled by stronger-than-expected readings on jobs, ISM Services PMI, factory orders, ADP employment, job openings, and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
The current reading approaches the July 2023 peak of 79.6, which itself was the highest since the early 2021 pandemic recovery. The sustained outperformance indicates US economic data is consistently exceeding analyst forecasts.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter