Market news
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Commerzbank: Warsh's First Fed Meeting Unlikely to Cut Rates
Commerzbank analysts predict Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting will not result in a rate cut, citing elevated PCE inflation and a still-solid labor market.
EUR/USD Trades Flat Near 1.1575 as 1.1600 Resistance Holds
The Euro gave back earlier gains against the US Dollar and is trading practically unchanged at 1.1575, with bulls unable to breach the 1.1600 level.
MUFG: Higher-for-Longer Rate Backdrop Supports US Dollar
MUFG analysts argue that firmer US inflation and resilient labor markets underpin a higher-for-longer global rates backdrop, supporting the US dollar.
EUR/USD Expected to Drift Toward 1.1400 – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad expects EUR/USD to edge lower toward 1.1400 as US growth outperforms, following a brief dip near 1.1500 after the ECB decision.
British Pound Steady on Iran Peace Hopes Despite Weak UK GDP
The British Pound holds a moderately positive tone against the US Dollar as optimism over a US-Iran peace deal offsets disappointing UK GDP data.
USD/BRL Faces Downside Risk, SocGen Says
Societe Generale analysts note USD/BRL rebounding from near 4.88, approaching key resistance around 5.25. They highlight downside risk if support near 4.99 fails.
Iran's IRNA Reveals Key Terms of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
Iran's state news agency IRNA has published the key terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) being discussed with the United States. Bloomberg earlier reported the MoU is expected to be signed in Geneva.
India May CPI Rises 3.93% YoY, Misses 4% Estimate
India's annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.93% in May, below the market expectation of 4% but above the prior month's reading.
Gold Holds Near $4,220 on US-Iran MoU Hopes, Mean Reversion to 20-Day EMA Seen
Gold price holds near $4,220 during European trading, extending Thursday's recovery on expectations of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Analysts suggest a mean-reversion move to the 20-day EMA is likely.
Silver (XAG/USD) Bulls Target $69.00 as Market Mood Improves
Silver (XAG/USD) is recovering losses during Friday's European session, trading in the mid-$67.00s as improved market sentiment supports bullish momentum toward the $69.00 target.
Polish Zloty under pressure as president blocks key reforms – Commerzbank
Commerzbank warns that President Karol Nawrocki's record number of vetoes, blocking legislation on crypto, tax and healthcare, is weighing on the Polish zloty. The bank expects obstruction to continue until 2027.
USD Upside Persists on Resilient Data, Says BBH Analyst
Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad notes that while improving US-Iran relations briefly weakened the dollar, resilient economic data supports further USD gains.
US-Iran Deal on Strait of Hormuz Nears Signing in Geneva – Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports that US and Iranian officials are close to signing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a possible agreement by the weekend as G7 leaders prepare to meet.
Nordea Sees Medium-Term Upside for EUR/USD
Nordea strategist Jan von Gerich argues the dollar has underperformed relative to historical patterns and expects a higher EUR/USD in the medium term, despite the pair remaining stuck between 1.15 and 1.16.
AUD Recovers Modest Losses Against USD, Lacks Follow-Through
The Australian Dollar reversed an intraday dip to the 0.7020 area and climbed to the top of its daily range during early European trading, though buying interest remained insufficient to sustain gains.
Societe Generale: INR Support via Capital Inflows, Not Tightening
Societe Generale notes the Indian government and RBI are relying on capital inflows to support the rupee rather than adopting tighter monetary policy.
ECB Hikes 25bp, Oil Prices Key to Dovish Outlook
The ECB delivered a 25bp rate hike as expected, but markets sought stronger forward guidance. Lower oil prices are acting as a dovish counterbalance, though renewed Iran tensions could push rates up.
AUD/USD Rebound Tests 0.7060 Resistance – UOB
AUD/USD's sharp rebound from 0.6979 to 0.7055 has room to extend toward 0.7060, but a clear break above this level is seen as unlikely near-term, according to UOB analysts.
Nomura Warns of USD Reversal Risks Despite Bullish Consensus
Nomura strategists note that while the US dollar’s bullish case is supported by strong data and Fed expectations, historical patterns around data surprises suggest downside risks ahead.
MUFG: US-Iran Deal Optimism Boosts EUR/USD
MUFG analyst Lee Hardman notes that renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement has strengthened the euro against the dollar, pushing EUR/USD higher.
ECB's Kocher: Too Early to Predict July Rate Decision
ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said it is too early to discuss the central bank's July interest rate decision.
GBP/JPY Holds Gains on Weaker Yen Despite Disappointing UK Data
GBP/JPY regained positive traction during European trading, supported by a broadly weaker JPY, despite unimpressive UK economic data.
Japanese Yen Trades Back to Intervention Levels Despite Expected BoJ Hike
The Japanese Yen continues to face downside pressure against the US Dollar, trading at levels that have historically triggered intervention, despite widespread expectations of a BoJ rate hike.
Euro Gains Against Yen on ECB Rate Hike Hopes
The euro rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen during European trading, reaching near 185.45, as expectations for further ECB interest rate hikes bolstered the single currency.