Last time we saw this kind of violent rejection off a key moving average was back in late summer, right before that final leg down. The chart looks eerily similar. This morning, I woke up, checked my levels, and saw ETH had nuked through short-term support, dropping over 5.5% to sit around $1,865. While a lot of people are panicking, this is the kind of volatility I live for. Price is talking, and my job is to listen. Forget the noise for a minute; the chart tells us everything we need to know.

Zooming out on the daily, the picture is pretty clear. We've been in a grinding uptrend for weeks, but that structure just snapped. The price sliced right through the 21-day EMA like it wasn't even there. For me, that's a major red flag. That moving average was our momentum indicator, and now we're trading below it with conviction. The volume on this down-move is also confirming the weakness. It’s not some low-volume fakeout; this is real institutional selling.

My primary focus now is the major support zone between $1,820 and $1,840. This is the last significant horizontal support level before we start looking at the low $1,700s. A daily candle close below $1,820 would be catastrophic for the bulls. I'm not saying it's going to happen today, but it's the line in the sand I've drawn on my whiteboard.

• Key Daily Support: $1,820
• Immediate Resistance (old support): $1,950
• Invalidation Level (for bears): A reclaim of $2,010

This is my bread and butter timeframe. On the 4H, we're seeing a classic breakdown setup. The drop was fast, and now we're seeing a weak attempt at a bounce. This is where I'm looking for one of the best day trading setups out there: the breakdown-retest. I'm patiently waiting for price to crawl back up to the $1,920-$1,940 area, which was the previous support. If it gets rejected there on low volume, I'm looking for a short entry. It’s a textbook play. You can have all the fundamental analysis you want, but as my friend Sarah Chen would probably agree, a broken chart is a broken chart.

Not yet. I see some traders on Twitter calling for a bottom, pointing to the RSI(14) on the 4-hour chart dipping below 30. But an oversold reading isn't a buy signal on its own. It can stay oversold for a long time in a strong downtrend. What I'm looking for in an RSI divergence strategy is for the price to make a new low while the RSI makes a higher low. We don't have that yet. Until we do, catching this falling knife is a sucker's game. I know Alex Volkov tracks market fear and greed, and I bet the fear index is spiking, but price action has to confirm a bottom first. Always.

So what's the plan? I'm not long, and I'm not short... yet. I'm stalking a short entry on a retest of the $1,920-$1,940 zone. My stop loss would be a clean 4H candle close above $1,960. My first target would be the $1,840 support level, offering a solid 3:1 risk/reward ratio. If that level breaks, I'll trail my stop and aim for $1,750.

The biggest risk here isn't the chart; it's my own psychology. If I get stopped out, I know the urge to immediately jump back in and revenge trade will be strong. It's my Achilles' heel. My trading journal is filled with notes on this exact mistake. The plan is the plan. If it doesn't work, I walk away and re-evaluate tomorrow. The market isn't going anywhere.

This looks like a classic liquidity hunt before a bigger move. The question is, are they shaking out the longs for a rip higher, or is this the start of a true bleed-out towards the $1,600 summer lows?