Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights - February 23, 2026

Markets enter the final week of February locked in a fierce tug-of-war. Last week revived serious “stagflation” concerns as US growth slowed sharply while inflation remained stubbornly elevated.

Adding to the macro tension, renewed tariff uncertainty over the weekend has injected fresh volatility into global equities. In this environment of softer growth and rising geopolitical risk, capital is rotating decisively into safe-haven assets.

US Macro Snapshot: Stagflation Fears Resurface

Last week’s data delivered a difficult mix for the Federal Reserve:

Growth Weakness (GDP):

US Q4 2025 GDP expanded just 1.4%, well below the 2.5% consensus and sharply down from Q3’s 4.4%.

Inflation Persistence (CPI/PCE):

Core CPI held steady at 2.5%, while the Fed’s preferred gauge, Core PCE, surprised to the upside at 3.0% versus the 2.9% expected.

Slowing growth combined with firm inflation complicates the Fed’s policy path. The dollar initially strengthened but reversed lower on Friday as markets reassessed the implications of sticky inflation alongside economic deceleration.

US Dollar Outlook

The Dollar Index is trading near 97.40 after failing to sustain last week’s move toward 98.00. The rejection near 98.00 signals that upside momentum has faded, shifting the near-term bias toward consolidation or downside pressure.

The 97.50–97.80 region now acts as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this band is required to restore bullish momentum. Failure to reclaim it keeps the Dollar vulnerable toward 97.00, with a break below exposing 96.50.

Tariff Uncertainty Adds Volatility

Trade policy developments have further unsettled markets. The Supreme Court struck down sweeping IEEPA tariffs, initially sparking a relief rally. However, President Trump quickly responded by signalling a new 15% global tariff via executive order for 150 days.

This renewed uncertainty threatens tech supply chains, particularly semiconductors. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq held psychological levels during Friday’s bounce, the risk of further escalation leaves equities exposed.

If the Nasdaq breaks below the 25,000–24,750 support zone, downside acceleration toward 24,200 becomes a realistic scenario.

Gold Outlook: Safe Haven Strengthens

Gold remains the primary beneficiary of the current backdrop. Stagflation concerns and tariff risks have driven strong demand, pushing prices firmly above $5,100 and toward $5,150.

The weekly chart printed a bullish hammer, reinforcing upside conviction. A sustained hold above $5,100 keeps the near-term bias constructive, with $5,290 as the next upside target. The broader bullish structure remains intact as long as Gold holds above $5,000.

What to Watch Today

Tariff Headlines

With limited scheduled data, markets will be highly sensitive to White House updates or international responses.

Fed Commentary

Traders will closely monitor how officials address the combination of weak growth and persistent inflation. Any acknowledgement of stagflation risks could further pressure the Dollar and support Gold.

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