I almost made a mistake this week. Almost got suckered into the 'soft landing' narrative again, watching the S&P 500 flirt with the highs. The noise was getting loud. Then I saw the Goldman note predicting AI will drive real layoffs and push up unemployment this year. It was a cold splash of water. A reminder. The real trade isn't in the tech stocks everyone is piling into; it's in the economic fallout. And for me, that spells one thing: Gold.

Last week was a wash. The market churned, searching for a catalyst while digesting mixed inflation data. I stayed mostly on the sidelines, letting the noise die down. But the Goldman report provides the macro clarity I've been waiting for. It confirms my bias that the Fed will be forced to cut rates sooner and deeper than the market is pricing, not because inflation is tamed, but because the labor market is about to crack. This fundamentally changes the game for hard assets.

• Gold (GC) Support: $2,325/oz - Key pivot.
• Gold (GC) Resistance: $2,380/oz - First target.
• Crude (CL) Range: $77.50 - $81.00 - I'm not touching it inside this box.
• S&P E-mini (ES) Warning Level: Below 5,280 signals trouble.

This is my primary trade. The gold price forecast this week is constructive. Higher unemployment means a dovish Fed, which is pure rocket fuel for non-yielding gold. I’ve been watching the Commitment of Traders report, and we're seeing speculative longs get washed out, which is exactly the setup I like to see before getting in. I'm not interested in the gold vs silver investment debate right now; silver has too much industrial demand exposure, which is a liability if Goldman's recessionary call is correct. Gold is the purer monetary play. It's the cleanest trade on the board.

My crude oil price analysis is screaming caution. On one hand, you have simmering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and OPEC's tight grip. My contacts are still talking about disciplined supply. But on the other, the Goldman note points directly to demand destruction. If people are losing their jobs, they're driving less. Simple. As Emma Blackwood has pointed out, corporate cost-cutting doesn't happen in a vacuum; it hits the real economy. I see a battle between supply constraints and demand fears, and I don't bet on coin flips. I'm flat crude until we get a clean break of the range.

My plan is straightforward. I'm looking to add to my physical gold position with a futures trade. I know tech-focused traders like Jake Morrison are probably looking for AI stocks to buy on dips, but they're ignoring the macro storm their sector is creating. You can't have a roaring economy when the machines are firing your customers. This is the core mispricing I'm exploiting.

1. Asset: Gold Futures (GC)
2. Entry: Bids layered from $2,330 down to $2,325.
3. Stop Loss: A daily close below $2,305.
4. Target: Taking first profits at $2,378, leaving a runner for a test of $2,400+.

What kills this trade? A surprisingly hot CPI report this week that forces the Fed to talk tough again. Or if the unemployment story proves to be a head fake and the labor market stays resilient. That's why the stop is tight. I learned my lesson on that Nat Gas trade years ago—the market doesn't care about your story if the price says you're wrong. But right now, the pieces are lining up.

So, is the market's obsession with AI a sign of true, sustainable growth, or is it just the final, desperate productivity grab before a recession the data hasn't caught yet?