📣 Create Blog for Traders!
Stop Watching news - Start Making it.
START
Saylor's Conference: A Bull Trap or The Next Leg Up?
Michael Saylor and Coinbase are on stage today, but my on-chain data is telling a different story. Here's how I'm trading this.
Last time we saw this kind of C-suite crypto conference was right before the Q2 2021 top. Big names, big stage, big promises... followed by a 50% haircut. So when I see Michael Saylor and Coinbase hosting an event today, my trader instincts kick in. The market is pumping into it, with BTC pushing past $65,300. But I'm not chasing this. My on-chain analysis for bitcoin suggests the smart money positioned itself weeks ago. This event feels more like an exit ramp for them than an entry for us.
I spent my morning on Glassnode, as usual. The Exchange Net Position Change is still showing outflows over the last 7 days. That's bullish. Coins are moving to cold storage, not to be sold. The MVRV Z-Score is at 2.4, which is getting warm, but it's not the overheated 7+ we saw at previous cycle tops. This tells me the underlying trend is strong. The structure is solid. It's the narrative events like this that create short-term volatility. My friend Jake Morrison often talks about retail sentiment, and this conference is pure sentiment fuel. It's designed to create FOMO.
I'm not shorting this, to be clear. Fighting this trend is a fool's game. But I'm also not adding to my long here. I'm waiting for the post-conference hangover. My thesis is that we'll see a dip as the hype fades and early buyers take profits. I'm looking for a retest of key support levels before I consider adding to my core BTC position. This is a classic patience play. A clean `bitcoin vs ethereum comparison` right now shows BTC's dominance is holding strong above 54%, and I'm not interested in fighting that momentum. Even Luna Park's deep dives into the latest DeFi protocols can't distract me from a clean BTC setup.
- Buy Zone: A retrace to the $63,800 - $64,200 range.
- Resistance: The local high around $65,800.
- Invalidation: A daily close below the $62,500 support.
Corporate conferences are for shaking hands and creating headlines, not for timing your entries. The real signals are on the blockchain, not the stage.
So, I'll be watching the price action, not the livestream. The market has a short memory, but those of us who survived 2018 remember what happens when euphoria takes over. Protect your capital. Trade the chart, not the news. So, I have to ask: are you buying the speech, or are you setting limit orders with the rest of us?