Everyone's celebrating this morning's BTC pump. I'm not. In fact, this is exactly the kind of price action that makes me double-check my stops. The news wires are buzzing about the strongest spike in 'positive' crowd sentiment in four weeks, according to Santiment data. From my experience, when the crowd gets this euphoric this fast, it's often a signal to de-risk, not to ape in. This is a classic crypto market sentiment indicator screaming for caution, not confirmation.

The move itself looks solid on the surface. A +5.8% push to reclaim $66,499 is nothing to ignore, and it liquidates a nice chunk of short-sellers. But I've learned from the 2018 crash that price is a liar; on-chain data is the truth. My Glassnode dashboard shows that while price is up, exchange outflows haven't picked up significantly. That tells me this might be a derivatives-led squeeze, not genuine spot accumulation. My bitcoin price prediction this week remains cautious: I expect a battle at the $67,500 resistance zone before any real continuation.

Ethereum is finally showing a pulse with an +8.7% move toward $1,970. But let's be honest, the ETH/BTC chart still looks anemic. Is this real strength or just Bitcoin's beta? A true ethereum price forecast depends heavily on capital rotation within DeFi, a sector that's been bleeding for months. I'd pay more attention to the on-chain activity that Luna Park covers than this spot price pop. Until we see gas fees spike from actual usage, this is just noise to me.

And of course, the alts are flying. Cardano up +10.5%, Solana up +10.4%. It's easy to get FOMO. But this looks like retail chasing shiny objects again, and it rarely ends well. I've been burned by enough rug pulls to know that when low-liquidity alts pump this hard on a BTC bounce, it's a sign of speculative froth, not fundamental strength. We're still in a shaky macro environment, a point my colleague Jake Morrison correctly emphasizes. This isn't the market to be gambling on narratives.

• BTC Resistance: The key level is the $67,500 - $68,000 supply zone. A clean 4H close above this is my signal that bulls have control.
• Funding Rates: Perps funding is getting positive again. If it overheats, it's a perfect setup for a long squeeze to wipe out the latecomers.
• Exchange Netflows: I need to see sustained, large outflows of BTC from exchanges. Until then, I'm assuming this rally lacks a strong spot bid.

So while the price action looks good, the underlying data tells a story of caution. I'm holding my core BTC position, but I'm certainly not adding here. The market wants to believe the pain is over. The question is, is this belief or just short-term hopium? What on-chain metric are you watching that tells me I'm wrong?