Last time we saw this kind of tight consolidation on the Ethereum daily chart was back in late 2020, right before the market went absolutely vertical. I remember it clearly. Everyone was bored, convinced the move was over. And then it wasn't. Now, sitting here with ETH at $1,969.05 after a nice 7.8% pop, I'm getting a similar feeling. My screens are telling a story that goes beyond the headlines about the latest network upgrade. The data suggests a quiet accumulation phase is underway, and my primary target for this move is the heavy resistance zone at $2,150. This isn't a guess; it's a thesis built on the same on-chain metrics I check every single morning before I even think about placing a trade.

My routine is simple. Coffee, then Glassnode. Before I look at a single candlestick, I want to know what the smart money is doing. And right now, they're pulling ETH off exchanges. Exchange Net Position Change has been consistently negative for the past two weeks. We're talking a net outflow of over 150,000 ETH from major centralized exchanges. That's not retail traders. That's cold storage. That's conviction. When coins leave exchanges, it means they aren't intended for sale anytime soon. It's a classic sign of accumulation, and it's happening right under the market's nose.

Then I pull up the MVRV Z-Score. It’s one of my go-to indicators for gauging market temperature. Right now, it’s sitting at 1.8. For context, the “overheated” red zone doesn't even begin until we cross 5.0. This tells me we have a tremendous amount of room to run before the market gets frothy. We're not at the beginning of the end; we're likely at the end of the beginning for this leg up. It's this kind of data that gives me the confidence to filter out the noise and focus on the signal.

Alright, let's get into the nitty-gritty on TradingView. The price action is clean. We had a strong rejection from the $2,040 area last week, but the pullback found solid footing at the $1,920 support level, which was previous resistance. A classic support/resistance flip. That's bullish market structure, just like my colleague Jake Morrison often breaks down in his broader market analysis. For me, this confirms the bulls are still in control. My current long position was initiated on that successful retest.

• Immediate Support: $1,920 (the S/R flip zone)
• Major Support: $1,850 (where the 200-day MA sits)
• Minor Resistance: $2,040 (last week's high)
• Primary Target: $2,150 (major psychological and technical resistance)

The plan is straightforward. As long as we hold above $1,920 on the daily timeframe, the path of least resistance is up. I'll be looking to take some profit around $2,140, just shy of that major resistance. Why? Because the first test of a level that significant rarely breaks through on the first try. I'd rather secure gains and re-evaluate than get greedy.

A complete ethereum price forecast is impossible without looking at the ETH/BTC ratio. This chart has been painful for months, bleeding out as Bitcoin dominated the narrative. But we're seeing signs of life. The ratio is trying to carve out a bottom around the 0.029 level. If we can get a decisive bounce here and reclaim 0.032, that's when the real fun begins. A rising ETH/BTC ratio is what fuels a true altcoin season. It signals that capital is rotating from the relative safety of Bitcoin into Ethereum and, by extension, the broader DeFi ecosystem.

This is where a solid defi tokens analysis becomes critical. A rising ETH tide lifts all DeFi boats, especially the blue chips. I've been reading up on the latest yield strategies from Luna Park, because when that rotation happens, you need to be ready. You don't want to be figuring out where to deploy capital when the move is already halfway done. My core position remains in BTC, but my swing-trade allocation is getting heavily weighted towards ETH in anticipation of this shift.

I don't deal in certainties. Trading is a game of probabilities, and you have to know when you're wrong. I learned that lesson the hard way in the 2018 crash. For this trade, my line in the sand is a daily close below the 200-day moving average, which is currently around $1,850. If we lose that level, the bullish market structure is broken. It's that simple. All bets are off, I'll close my position for a small, managed loss, and wait for the chart to set up again. No emotion, just execution. The market doesn't care about my opinion, so I have to respect its price action.

So, while the headlines focus on the next upgrade or some billionaire's tweet, I'm focused on the flow of funds and the key levels on the chart. The data suggests a move to test $2,150 is more likely than not. But I'm prepared for either outcome. That's the job. Now for the real question: is the market finally beginning to price in ETH's transition to a deflationary, yield-bearing asset, or is this just another liquidity-driven rally before a macro headwind smacks us all down?