According to Polymarket odds, the probability that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs this Friday, January 9, is just 21%.

If the tariffs are ruled unlawful, the Supreme Court could require the Trump administration to refund more than $130 billion collected from tariffs.

Trump has previously said that such a ruling would be a “catastrophe.”

At the same time, Bessent and other officials have noted that if the tariffs are struck down, the Trump administration would likely seek legal workarounds to keep the current tariffs in force and find alternative mechanisms to introduce new ones, signaling that trade protection measures would remain a policy priority regardless of the court’s decision.

#tariffs #USA #court