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Stop Watching news - Start Making it.

Everyone's passing around Michael Hartnett's note this morning, ringing the alarm bell about a 2008-style crisis. He's pointing at rising oil and cracks in private credit, with funds like BlackRock seeing record outflows. He's not wrong, but he's late. The credit markets are just the symptom. The real disease is in the physical world, and the agric...

Got off a call this morning with a contact in Midland. He's not watching the news headlines from D.C. He's watching rig counts and listening to the chatter from roughnecks. Their takeaway? This SPR release is a joke. A political stunt designed to make it look like someone's doing something. While the talking heads on TV panicked, the real players i...

Goldman Sachs put out a note today raising their 2026 TTF gas forecast to €46/MWh. The market saw it, nodded sagely, and priced in a little bump. Most traders are wrong about what this means. They see a respected bank validating a slow grind up. I see a lagging indicator from analysts who are just now catching up to the facts on the ground. They're...

Last time we saw this level of political jawboning around oil prices was back in late 2022, just before the midterms. Now, the wires are hot with chatter that Trump wants to keep crude below $100 a barrel. Frankly, what president *doesn't* want lower gas prices? This isn't alpha; it's election-year politics. The real story isn't in Washington D.C.,...

I saw the headline this morning over coffee: Schumer wants Trump to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR is sitting near a 40-year low, holding barely 345 million barrels, and their solution is to drain it more? This isn't a market strategy; it's a political Hail Mary. And I'm fading it. Hard. This is the kind of political noise that create...

I almost made a big mistake this week. I saw the headlines Friday morning: “Aluminum Has Strongest Week in 2 Years.” I saw the JPMorgan note calling for $4000. My trigger finger got itchy. The FOMO was real. It's a classic setup for blowing up an account, and I've got the scars to prove it from my early days. But then I pulled up the chart, shut ou...

So the White House is jawboning oil again. The Bloomberg wire lit up this morning with headlines about the Trump administration 'considering all options' to curb rising prices. The market sold off a quick buck on the news, as expected. Weak hands get shaken out. But here's the deal: this is noise. It's political theater heading into mid-terms. My c...

I almost made a mistake this week. I was getting ready to short crude oil into the $85 resistance level on Brent, looking at the weak manufacturing data coming out of Germany. The setup looked clean. Then the Financial Times story dropped about the EU begging Ukraine to let Russian oil flow through the 'Druzhba' pipeline. I immediately tore up my s...

The headlines are screaming about an aluminum rally. Bloomberg just noted that the Middle East accounts for 9% of global production, and with tensions flaring, everyone is piling into longs. It seems like a no-brainer. And that's exactly why I'm not touching it with a ten-foot pole on my funded accounts. In fact, I'm watching for a place to short i...

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Woke up, checked the overnight futures, and saw GC (Gold) ripping through $5400. The wires were screaming about geopolitical tensions, the talking heads were calling for $6000. My first instinct, that old pit trader impulse, was to jump in and buy the breakout. And then I stopped. Poured my coffee, open...