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This morning's news about Iran letting two Indian LPG tankers pass through Hormuz is a head fake, and I’m looking to buy the dip in crude oil once this knee-jerk selling exhausts itself. I’ve seen this movie before. A small, symbolic gesture gets blown out of proportion, creating a short-term pricing anomaly. For a prop firm trader like me, these a...

I almost made a big mistake this week. I was so deep in my spreadsheets, tracking interest rate differentials and parsing the latest ECB minutes, that I nearly dismissed the Iran headline as just another geopolitical flare-up. It's easy to get lost in the daily noise of CPI prints and jobs data. But the news that Iran is considering demanding Chine...

Everyone's passing around Michael Hartnett's note this morning, ringing the alarm bell about a 2008-style crisis. He's pointing at rising oil and cracks in private credit, with funds like BlackRock seeing record outflows. He's not wrong, but he's late. The credit markets are just the symptom. The real disease is in the physical world, and the agric...

The Japan SPR news is a head fake; the real trade isn't shorting crude, it's buying gold. I'm seeing the wires flash this morning about Japan planning to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Monday, March 16. The knee-jerk reaction is bearish for crude, and I expect amateurs to start piling into shorts heading into the weekend. They'...

This Hormuz news is a classic headline-driven fakeout, and I’m looking to fade this knee-jerk rally in crude oil.

I almost blew a $200k funded account on Wednesday. Not because of a bad trade, but because of a stupid mistake. I forgot to check the daily drawdown before entering a simple scalp on the E-mini S&P. My platform was set to a 1% risk, but the firm's rules calculate drawdown from the day's starting balance, not my entry. A small winner almost turned i...

Got off a call this morning with a contact in Midland. He's not watching the news headlines from D.C. He's watching rig counts and listening to the chatter from roughnecks. Their takeaway? This SPR release is a joke. A political stunt designed to make it look like someone's doing something. While the talking heads on TV panicked, the real players i...

Goldman's new oil forecast is a joke, and I'm fading their conservatism. They just bumped their 2026 Brent target to $77 from $71 this morning. It's a classic case of analysts playing catch-up to a reality that traders on the floor have seen coming for months. The real story isn't a timid upgrade; it's the structural deficit that's about to send cr...

Last time we saw this kind of sanctioned crude flood the shadow market was back in 2023. The headlines screamed about geopolitical tension, but the price action told the real story: more supply, lower prices. Now, with news that Iran is pushing millions of barrels to China, the market is making the same mistake. They see conflict in the Strait of H...

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. The kind that reminds me of blowing up my first account on a bad nat gas trade years ago. The headlines were screaming: Iran conflict escalating, Rand Paul on TV talking about “disastrous elections” from high oil prices. The herd was piling into crude futures, and my finger was hovering over the buy but...