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The last time I saw this much conviction about a seasonal narrative was right before the 2024 halving. Everyone was calling for a massive pre-halving dump that never really came. Now, the calendar traders are back, screaming from the rooftops about April's strength and the classic 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy. I get it, the historical data is...

Last time the S&P 500 seasonality models got this disconnected from reality was right before the massive Q4 2023 rip. I'm seeing the chatter everywhere this week: the S&P 500 is way off its historical average for March. The stats guys are calling for a pullback. But I'm looking at the chart, and all I see is a bull flag getting ready to send it. Pr...

Are you getting ready to buy the dip because the calendar says it's mid-March? Don't. While it's true the S&P 500 has often bottomed in mid-March over the last two decades, I believe treating that pattern as gospel this year is a classic rookie mistake. The macro environment has fundamentally shifted, and relying on simple seasonality without appre...