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Forex strategist, ex-ECB policy analyst. I lived through the Euro crisis from the inside. Now I trade G10 and EM currencies full-time. My focus: central bank divergence plays and macro event setups.
Every central bank meeting, my feed is flooded with the same thing: breathless speculation about a 25 or 50 basis point move. Traders line up on one side or the other, place their bets, and then get chopped to pieces in the volatility. They think the game is about guessing the rate decision. They're wrong. The rate decision is almost always the lea...
Let’s get this out of the way: I think the market is getting spooked by shadows when it comes to the USD/JPY. Everyone is glued to their charts, waiting for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to jump in and smack the pair down. And while intervention is a real risk, it's also a distraction from the main event. My USD/JPY analysis today isn't focused on what t...
Let me be blunt: most of the forex trading strategies you read about online are, at best, distractions. They’re focused on lagging indicators, complex chart patterns, and proprietary signals that promise the world. But I'm here to tell you that the engine of the entire $7.5 trillion-a-day forex market runs on one thing and one thing only: central b...
Let's be honest. The consensus trade right now is to be short the Euro. Every analyst on TV is singing from the same hymn sheet: the Fed is hawkish, the ECB is dovish, so sell EUR/USD. It's simple, it's clean, and it's probably wrong. When a trade becomes this crowded, I get interested in the other side. My time at the ECB taught me one thing: cent...
I stared at my interest rate differential spreadsheet for a solid five minutes this morning. The spread between the German 2-year bund and the US 2-year Treasury note just widened to its largest gap in three months. That’s not just a number on a screen. That’s the bond market screaming that the economic paths of Europe and the United States are spl...