Market news
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US Economic Surprise Index Hits 63.2, Highest Since August 2023
The US Economic Surprise Index reached 63.2 points, the highest since August 2023, driven by a string of strong economic data beats including jobs, ISM PMIs, and factory orders.
Gold edges lower near $4,150 on US-Iran uncertainty, hawkish Fed signals
Gold (XAU/USD) trades with mild losses around $4,155 during the early Asian session Monday as traders assess US-Iran peace talks uncertainty and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.
Product Tanker Evades Armed Boarding Attempt Near Yemen
A product tanker reported an attempted boarding by five armed individuals in a skiff southeast of Al-Shihr, Yemen. The crew took evasive maneuvers and altered course, successfully avoiding the attackers; no injuries or damage were reported.
Iran Refuses to Return to Quadrilateral Talks After Trump Threats
Iranian negotiators have refused to rejoin quadrilateral talks in Switzerland following threats from President Trump. Mediation efforts via Qatar and Pakistan continue, but no breakthrough has been reached.
WTI Surges Nearly 2% on Strait of Hormuz Closure and Peace Talk Uncertainty
West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped nearly 2% in early Asian trade Monday, opening with a bullish gap above $1 and retesting the $78 level, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fragile peace negotiations.
Iran Protests Trump Threats, Holds Qatar Talks; Oil Blockade Breached
Iran lodged a formal protest with the US over President Trump's threats, as bilateral talks with Qatar began following four-party negotiations in Switzerland. NIOC reported that over 25 million barrels of Iranian oil have passed the blockade since Monday.
UK PM Starmer to Announce Exit Plan on Monday, Source Says
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is weighing his political future and plans to announce an exit on Monday, according to a Reuters source, following Andy Burnham's decisive parliamentary election victory.
Iran Suspends US Talks, Closes Strait of Hormuz Over Israeli Strikes
Iranian negotiators have suspended high-stakes talks with the US in Switzerland after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz over Israeli attacks on Lebanon, escalating geopolitical tensions.
Trump Blasts Italy on Truth Social Over Iran Nuclear Threat
Former President Trump criticized Italy on Truth Social for refusing to engage on the Iran nuclear threat, contrasting decades of U.S. NATO defense spending with Italy's lack of reciprocal support.
Unprofitable Russell 2000 Companies Outperform Profitable Ones Since April
Russell 2000 companies with negative EPS have returned +60% since April 2025, outperforming profitable firms (+38%) and the overall index (+48%). The trend accelerated after the Iran-US ceasefire on April 7th as investors piled into small-cap tech stocks.
The Kobeissi Letter Publishes Weekly Macro Commentary for June 22
The Kobeissi Letter has released its weekly edition for June 22, along with the Chart of the Week. Both are available for viewing or free sign-up via the provided links.
US-Iran Talks Still On, Says Diplomat, Denying Walkout Reports
A diplomat at the Switzerland talks stated that the Iranian delegation has not left and US-Iran talks are ongoing, contradicting earlier reports of a walkout over Trump's threats.
Iran: Steps to Release Frozen Assets Taken with Qatar; No Talks Without Lebanon War End
An Iranian negotiating team member said executive steps to release frozen assets have been taken with Qatari participation, and warned that talks on other issues will not proceed without an end to the war in Lebanon.
Brexit Vote 10 Years On: Reflecting on the Landmark Referendum
A friend reminded the author that 10 years ago on June 16, they were in Dublin preparing to host an event on the likely impacts of a Brexit vote.
Iranian Team Quits Talks in Switzerland Over Trump Threats
Iran's negotiating delegation has left the venue in Switzerland in protest over President Trump's threats, citing a violation of a June 18th memorandum that bars the use of threat or force, according to Iranian state media.
Leveraged SK Hynix ETF AUM Hits Record $13B in Hong Kong
Assets in the 2x Leveraged Long SK Hynix ETF listed in Hong Kong have reached a record $13 billion, more than tripling in two months. It is now the second-largest ETF among roughly 250 listed in the city and accounts for 13% of total local ETF assets.
Trump Warns Iran to Stop Proxies in Lebanon, Threatens Severe Response
Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, demanding that Iran immediately stop its proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, warning of a stronger military strike if they do not comply.
US Economic Data Week: PCE, GDP, PMI, Consumer Sentiment
A busy week of US economic data includes S&P Global PMI, new home sales, PCE inflation, Q1 GDP revision, and consumer sentiment. Inflation remains the focus.
Iran Warns Israeli Presence in Lebanon Would Void US-Iran Peace Deal
Iran warned that continued Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon would nullify the US-Iran peace agreement, as Israel's defense minister confirmed no withdrawal from the area.
NSA Confirms Mythos Breached Classified Networks Within Hours
The NSA has confirmed that an entity known as 'Mythos' penetrated nearly all classified systems within hours, marking a significant cybersecurity incident.
IAEA Director Meets Swiss FM on Iran Developments
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency met with the Swiss Foreign Minister in Burgenstock to discuss the latest on Iran and the agency's role.
Iranian Foreign Minister Meets Swiss Counterpart in Burgenstock
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis in Burgenstock on Sunday, marking the first official event of the Iranian delegation’s visit to Switzerland.
Warsh Holds Fed Rate Steady, Vows to Make Policy Unreadable for Markets
Kevin Warsh kept the Fed's benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but his first press conference as chair signaled a radical shift toward opacity, dismantling the forward-guidance framework markets have relied on for a decade.
Iran Oil Sector Eyes Major Investment Opportunities Post-Agreement
Iranian official Paknejad said the country's oil sector is preparing to offer significant investment opportunities globally once an agreement is reached, with hundreds of projects and contracts ready for signing.