Market news
Crypto, stocks, forex and macro, aggregated for traders.
US Retail Sales Surge 0.9% MoM in May, Beating Expectations
US retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month in May to $763.7 billion, exceeding the 0.5% forecast and accelerating from the prior month's 0.5% gain. Year-over-year sales were up 6.9%.
Nvidia Bond Sale Noise Masks Chart Setup
Nvidia's $25 billion bond offering and renewed AI trade overheating debate dominate headlines, but the chart pattern offers a more measured signal.
US Gaming Associations Urge Senate to Ban Sports Prediction Markets Under GENIUS Act
The American Gaming Association, Indian Gaming Association, and Association of Gaming Equipment Manufacturers have called on the U.S. Senate to ban prediction markets linked to sports and gambling as part of the GENIUS Act, arguing they circumvent state laws and consumer protections.
Euro retreats below 1.1600 as Fed focus returns
The Euro fell moderately against the US Dollar on Wednesday, giving back recent gains as markets turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's next moves.
Societe Generale Favors Short USD/JPY on Dovish Fed Risk
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes recommends short positions on USD/JPY, arguing that a dovish Fed outcome would support the trade, while recent G10 policy shifts have not caused significant FX moves.
UK CPI Stays at 2.8% in May, Misses Consensus and BoE Forecast
UK headline CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year in May, below both Bloomberg consensus and the Bank of England's April MPR projection, while core inflation edged up. Societe Generale notes services strength offset goods softness.
Fed Patience Caps Dollar Weakness – OCBC
OCBC strategist Sim Moh Siong says the US dollar is supported by the Fed's patient stance, with FX markets in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Falling oil prices alleviate inflation concerns but have limited room to weigh further on the greenback.
LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange to Launch LME-Listed Flat Steel Futures
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has signed an agreement with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) to launch an LME-listed futures contract offering exposure to the SHFE flat steel market for participants outside China.
Societe Generale: EUR/USD Range-Bound with Downside Bias to 1.12
Societe Generale's Kit Juckes sees EUR/USD stuck in a range with a downside bias toward 1.12, citing a lack of major FX moves from recent G10 central bank actions and deeper Eurozone GDP forecast cuts.
Gold Trades Sideways as Markets Await Fed Guidance, US-Iran Peace Deal
Gold (XAU/USD) is little changed around $4,332.60 on Wednesday as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance and ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations.
USD Range Trading Persists as Fed Holds Steady – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note the US economy shows resilient growth with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed on hold and USD range-bound. Market pricing still leans toward a rate hike in early 2025.
Yen Mildly Gains as USD/JPY Hovers Near 160 Intervention Zone
The Japanese Yen edged higher against the US Dollar on Wednesday, with USD/JPY easing to 160.20, still above the 160.00 level considered the threshold for potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Focus remains on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
RBA Holds Rate at 4.35%, Signals Tightening Bias Amid Slowing Growth
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35%, retaining a tightening bias but acknowledging slowing growth and rising unemployment, pointing to a prolonged plateau.
Societe Generale Sees Diverging Oil Normalization After US-Iran Deal
Societe Generale analysts note that Brent oil prices are normalizing after the US-Iran deal, but highlight differing adjustments across spot, volatility, and options markets.
RaboResearch: UK CPI and Labour Data Weigh on Pound Outlook
RaboResearch notes softer UK inflation and signs of spare capacity in the labour market, which may influence the Bank of England's stance and weigh on the British Pound.
RBA Holds Rate at 4.35%, AUD/USD Little Changed – UOB
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% after three consecutive 25 bps hikes. AUD/USD remained steady as the RBA adopted a hawkish pause, according to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research.
Fed Set for Hawkish Pivot as Warsh Chairs First FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a hawkish stance at its upcoming meeting, with Kevin Warsh chairing for the first time, despite positive headlines from the Iran conflict.
BoJ Rate Hike Fails to Boost Yen, OCBC Says
The Bank of Japan's widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike to 1.0% and confirmation of tapering ending in 2027 provided only limited support for the yen, according to OCBC's Christopher Wong.
Binance Disputes Report of Imminent MiCA License Rejection in Greece
Binance pushes back against a Reuters report claiming Greek regulators are poised to deny its MiCA crypto license, saying its application has been deemed compliant and that a final decision is pending.
Riksbank Holds Rate at 1.75%, Signals Increased Hike Probability
Sweden's Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, in line with expectations, but indicated a higher probability of a rate hike later this year compared to its March assessment.
ING Sees Cyclical Drivers Fuelling US Dollar Strength into Coming Months
ING strategists say cyclical factors have reasserted themselves in FX markets, supporting a stronger US dollar over the next several months.
UK Food Inflation Benign, CPI Below 3% Despite Middle East Risks
UK food inflation remained remarkably benign in May, keeping the consumer price index below 3%. However, the Middle East crisis poses a risk of pushing costs higher later this year, with energy prices potentially driving inflation to a peak of around 3.5%.
Gold Awaits Fed Decision as USD Retreats on Geopolitical Easing
The US Dollar continues to decline amid easing geopolitical risks and fading concerns over Kevin Warsh's dovish stance. Trump claims the Iran agreement is finalized, pushing Brent below $80 and boosting US stocks, while gold markets await the Fed's next move.
Warsh Guidance Shapes Dollar Outlook, MUFG Says
MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny notes that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first post-FOMC press conference is key for the dollar outlook, as a sharp drop in Brent oil eases near-term inflation risks.