The Q4 2025 earnings season in the United States is still underway, and early results point to a mixed but telling picture for US equities.

According to FactSet, among companies that have already reported:

• 📉 76% beat EPS expectations ▪️ Below the 5-year average (78%) ▪️ In line with the 10-year average (76%)
• 📈 73% beat revenue expectations ▪️ Above the 5-year average (70%) ▪️ Well above the 10-year average (66%)

• 💰 Top-line growth remains resilient, suggesting consumer demand and pricing power are holding up
• ⚠️ Margin pressure is clearly visible, as higher financing costs, wages, and AI-related capex weigh on profitability
• 📊 The gap between revenue beats and EPS beats highlights rising costs and shrinking operating leverage

For investors, this combination is crucial: 👉 Companies can still grow sales, but turning that growth into profits is becoming harder.

In past cycles, such dynamics often led to:

• Increased stock-level volatility
• Stronger differentiation between sectors
• Higher sensitivity to forward guidance rather than headline beats

With valuations still elevated in parts of the US market, future earnings revisions and management outlooks may matter more than backward-looking results.

Earnings season isn’t flashing red yet — but it’s no longer a clear green light either.