Let's get one thing straight: if your entire trading plan is 'short when RSI is over 70,' you're going to get steamrolled in this market. I'm looking at the Bitcoin chart after Friday's close, and the number of people calling for a top because the daily RSI(14) is at 78 is insane. This is a classic bull market trap, and a perfect example of why ind...

This morning's news about Iran letting two Indian LPG tankers pass through Hormuz is a head fake, and I’m looking to buy the dip in crude oil once this knee-jerk selling exhausts itself. I’ve seen this movie before. A small, symbolic gesture gets blown out of proportion, creating a short-term pricing anomaly. For a prop firm trader like me, these a...

Everyone's passing around Michael Hartnett's note this morning, ringing the alarm bell about a 2008-style crisis. He's pointing at rising oil and cracks in private credit, with funds like BlackRock seeing record outflows. He's not wrong, but he's late. The credit markets are just the symptom. The real disease is in the physical world, and the agric...

The Japan SPR news is a head fake; the real trade isn't shorting crude, it's buying gold. I'm seeing the wires flash this morning about Japan planning to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Monday, March 16. The knee-jerk reaction is bearish for crude, and I expect amateurs to start piling into shorts heading into the weekend. They'...

Got off a call this morning with a contact in Midland. He's not watching the news headlines from D.C. He's watching rig counts and listening to the chatter from roughnecks. Their takeaway? This SPR release is a joke. A political stunt designed to make it look like someone's doing something. While the talking heads on TV panicked, the real players i...

Goldman's new oil forecast is a joke, and I'm fading their conservatism. They just bumped their 2026 Brent target to $77 from $71 this morning. It's a classic case of analysts playing catch-up to a reality that traders on the floor have seen coming for months. The real story isn't a timid upgrade; it's the structural deficit that's about to send cr...

Goldman Sachs put out a note today raising their 2026 TTF gas forecast to €46/MWh. The market saw it, nodded sagely, and priced in a little bump. Most traders are wrong about what this means. They see a respected bank validating a slow grind up. I see a lagging indicator from analysts who are just now catching up to the facts on the ground. They're...

Are you positioned for the most obvious squeeze in years? The latest Goldman data, backed by what I'm seeing in the weekly Commitment of Traders report, is practically screaming it. Hedge funds and asset managers are trying to play it safe. They're long their favorite tech and industrial names but are hedging their bets by piling into shorts on ind...

Last time we saw this kind of sanctioned crude flood the shadow market was back in 2023. The headlines screamed about geopolitical tension, but the price action told the real story: more supply, lower prices. Now, with news that Iran is pushing millions of barrels to China, the market is making the same mistake. They see conflict in the Strait of H...

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. The kind that reminds me of blowing up my first account on a bad nat gas trade years ago. The headlines were screaming: Iran conflict escalating, Rand Paul on TV talking about “disastrous elections” from high oil prices. The herd was piling into crude futures, and my finger was hovering over the buy but...