I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

I almost made a big mistake this week. A really dumb one. I saw that scary Bank of America chart making the rounds—the one showing S&P 500 concentration at dot-com bubble levels—and my finger twitched over the 'sell' button. The narrative felt right. The fear felt real. For a second, I forgot my most important rule: headlines don't pay the bills, p...

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

Last time we saw chop like this was back in late 2022. Sideways, violent, and designed to liquidate anyone with a weak stomach. The talking heads are screaming about AI signals and quant funds, but all I see are traders getting bled out by a thousand cuts. The consensus is that you need a more complex system to navigate this. They're dead wrong. Th...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

The headlines are screaming panic, but the charts are whispering opportunity. That's my takeaway from the Goldman note that CTAs just dumped a massive $190 billion in global stocks. Everyone's comparing it to the March 2020 COVID nuke. I get it, it's a scary number. But I'm not convinced it's the same setup. Not even close.

Is this recent geopolitical shudder the 'big one' everyone’s been waiting for? A note from Deutsche Bank hit the wires this morning highlighting that the S&P 500's drop was sharper than the historical average for these kinds of shocks. While the headlines are ugly, my initial analysis suggests this is a volatility event, not a fundamental shift. I'...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...