I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

Last time we saw chop like this was back in late 2022. Sideways, violent, and designed to liquidate anyone with a weak stomach. The talking heads are screaming about AI signals and quant funds, but all I see are traders getting bled out by a thousand cuts. The consensus is that you need a more complex system to navigate this. They're dead wrong. Th...

I almost made a big mistake this week. A really dumb one. I saw that scary Bank of America chart making the rounds—the one showing S&P 500 concentration at dot-com bubble levels—and my finger twitched over the 'sell' button. The narrative felt right. The fear felt real. For a second, I forgot my most important rule: headlines don't pay the bills, p...

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

Citi dumping US stocks isn't a signal to panic; it's a signal for volatility – and that's where day traders like us find our edge, by focusing on pure price action and volume. TL;DR: Don't trade the news itself; trade the market's reaction to the news using confirmed price action and volume at key levels.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

I counted 14 new crypto-related S-1 filings this quarter alone. Fourteen. When the capital markets are this eager to package and sell every new shiny object, my Wall Street instincts kick in. The latest is Grayscale's filing for a spot Hyperliquid ETF, the GHYP. It's a pure-play bet on a decentralized exchange's native token. And while the crypto c...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...