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I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

The knee-jerk reaction to the WSJ report on the UAE and the Strait of Hormuz this morning was predictable: Brent crude futures jumped over 4%. But chasing that spike is a rookie mistake. I read Jake Morrison's piece on fading the oil rip, and while I respect his tactical view on short-term exhaustion, I believe focusing on the commodity itself miss...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

Is this recent geopolitical shudder the 'big one' everyone’s been waiting for? A note from Deutsche Bank hit the wires this morning highlighting that the S&P 500's drop was sharper than the historical average for these kinds of shocks. While the headlines are ugly, my initial analysis suggests this is a volatility event, not a fundamental shift. I'...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...

So here's what nobody seems to be talking about with the private credit sell-off today. Yes, the headlines are ugly. Seeing names like Blackstone (BX) down 8% and Ares (ARES) getting hit for a staggering 11% intraday is enough to make anyone nervous. The narrative is that the high-rate environment is finally cracking the foundation of the private m...

The screens were a sea of red this morning. The S&P 500 opened down another 1.2%, pushing its drawdown from the recent highs to nearly -7% on the back of escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Immediately, the classic Wall Street adage started making the rounds, backed by research notes from Deutsche and Morgan Stanley: 'geopolitical dips are ...