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Stop Watching news - Start Making it.

So The Economist is out with a new headline: the energy price surge is an "attack on the global economy." Sounds terrifying, right? It's designed to make you panic. But while everyone is running around reacting to scary words on a page, I'm just looking at my charts. And my charts are telling a very different story.

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Heading into Friday's close, I was looking at my portfolio and seriously considered trimming my Bitcoin miner positions like RIOT and MARA. With BTC chopping around $71,000, they felt like just another high-beta play with thinning margins. Then I read the note from VanEck's Matthew Sigel, and it hit me:...

The headlines are screaming about Iran, the S&P 500 is down 3.5% this week, and bonds are selling off in tandem. Good. The market needed this reality check. For weeks, we've been floating on stretched valuations and ignoring a 10-year Treasury yield creeping towards 4.8%. This geopolitical flare-up isn't the fundamental reason for the drop; it's th...

These North Korea sanctions headlines are pure trader bait, and most people will get chopped up reacting to them. While everyone else is debating the geopolitical fallout, I'm watching the tape. Because the news doesn't matter—the market's reaction to the news is the only thing that pays.

The chart that has my full attention this week isn't Bitcoin or some new altcoin. It's the XLE/SPY ratio. For the first time in what feels like forever, this ratio—pitting the energy sector against the broader market—is poking its head above a decade-long descending trendline. The internet is screaming breakout. Me? I'm sitting on my hands, and I t...

So, the news dropped this morning: Trump's sons are launching a drone company called Powerus to sell to the Pentagon. And just like clockwork, my feed is full of people screaming to buy defense stocks. They see the names, they see the headlines, and they start throwing money at anything with a missile on its logo. I think it's the biggest head-fake...

Last time headlines screamed about tech-driven job losses this loudly was back in the early 2000s, and we all know how that ended. But this feels different. The Challenger report dropped this morning, citing over 6,000 layoffs in February from AI and automation. The news wires are painting this as the beginning of the end. Me? I'm calling it the st...

The market is reacting this morning with a predictable sigh of relief. South Korea announces a 100 trillion won stabilization fund after the KOSPI's worst day since 2008, and the knee-jerk reaction is to buy. The herd thinks the government has put a floor under the market. They are wrong. From my years at Goldman, I can tell you that these dramatic...

The sharp sell-off in South Korea this morning isn't an isolated event; it’s a potential canary in the coal mine for global risk appetite. Scanning my pre-market screens, the sea of red originating from Asia was impossible to ignore. While many traders focus solely on domestic headlines, my time at Goldman taught me that significant regional shocks...

Are you getting ready to buy the dip because the calendar says it's mid-March? Don't. While it's true the S&P 500 has often bottomed in mid-March over the last two decades, I believe treating that pattern as gospel this year is a classic rookie mistake. The macro environment has fundamentally shifted, and relying on simple seasonality without appre...