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Stop Watching news - Start Making it.

I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

I almost made a big mistake this week. A really dumb one. I saw that scary Bank of America chart making the rounds—the one showing S&P 500 concentration at dot-com bubble levels—and my finger twitched over the 'sell' button. The narrative felt right. The fear felt real. For a second, I forgot my most important rule: headlines don't pay the bills, p...

I saw the headlines this morning. Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek Finance Minister, says classical capitalism is dead and AI is a bubble. My first thought? He's probably right. My second thought? Who cares. For guys like him, a bubble is a sign of systemic risk. For me, a bubble is a five-lane highway for volatility, and that's where I make my l...

I woke up this morning, grabbed my coffee, and saw NASA's director is making alien hunting a 'key task'. Seriously. You can't write this stuff. While guys like Alex Volkov are probably building complex macro models on intergalactic trade deficits, I'm just here to trade the charts. Because at the end of the day, price is the only thing that pays.

See that headline about Trump's $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY2027? Most people see politics. I see a setup. This isn't about red or blue; it's about green. A firehose of government money is about to be pointed directly at the defense sector, and that means volatility, volume, and opportunity for anyone who knows how to read a chart.

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

Last time we saw chop like this was back in late 2022. Sideways, violent, and designed to liquidate anyone with a weak stomach. The talking heads are screaming about AI signals and quant funds, but all I see are traders getting bled out by a thousand cuts. The consensus is that you need a more complex system to navigate this. They're dead wrong. Th...

The wire lit up this morning with a Goldman Sachs note calling for over $13.8 billion in US equity buying from pension funds. With two days left in the quarter, this is a massive, forced bid hitting the market. Most traders see this as a bullish signal. I see it as the perfect liquidity event to sell into. This isn't conviction; it's a mechanical r...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...

Last time we saw this kind of blind, universal agreement was right before the dot-com bubble burst. Everyone was a genius, every pick was a winner, and no one could do any wrong. A new Stanford study on 'AI Flattery' just put a name on the same dangerous behavior I'm seeing in the markets today. It's a high-tech echo chamber, and it's setting up a ...