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I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Looking at the daily chart for BTC, seeing the chop around $64,000, my finger was hovering over the sell button for some of my altcoin swing positions. The price action looked weak, tired. My morning routine of checking funding rates and open interest showed a market bleeding out slowly. But before I di...

I saw the Grayscale note this morning while checking the funding rates. XRP is now the second most-cited cryptocurrency after BTC. The social media crowd is ecstatic. My first thought? So what. I've been in this market since 2017, and I learned one thing the hard way during the 2018 crash: social chatter and actual capital flow are two completely d...

This morning, the first number I checked wasn't a crypto price. It was the 90-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500. It’s sitting around 0.4, a level that makes most crypto natives feel comfortable, even complacent. They think decoupling is here. They're wrong. In a real risk-off panic, that correlation snaps to 0.8 or higher in a...

The internet is buzzing with MicroStrategy's peak unrealized loss of $9.5 billion on its Bitcoin holdings. I've seen the headlines. And frankly, they're missing the entire point. This isn't a story about a loss; it's a story about conviction, and it's a perfect example of how traditional finance mindsets completely fail to grasp this asset class. W...

I keep seeing this narrative pop up: Ethereum is on the verge of a massive rally because of a 9-month cycle. My first thought this morning, looking at my Glassnode dashboard? That's chart astrology. While traders are busy drawing circles on a calendar, they're missing the hard data that actually moves markets. I survived the 2018 crash by ignoring ...

Woke up to a sea of red on the monitors. Classic. A sharp -4.3% liquidation cascade took Bitcoin down to the $65,000 level, dragging the rest of the market with it. My morning routine of checking funding rates and open interest showed exactly what I expected: a much-needed flush of over-leveraged longs. While many are panicking, I see this as a cri...

Everyone on Twitter is screaming about the latest Ethereum updates being a game-changer. I get it. Lower fees, better scalability... it's a great narrative. But I'm looking at my screens, and the price action is telling a completely different story. We're watching ETH bleed out, currently struggling to hold $1,865, down over 5% while the rest of th...