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Alright, let's cut through the noise. Bloomberg's screaming about the war in Iran sending demand for US oil abroad to record levels. And yeah, the price action heading into Friday's close certainly reflected that sentiment, with WTI crude futures (CL1!) spiking hard. Most traders are probably piling into longs this morning, April 6, 2026, thinking ...

Last time we saw this kind of disconnect between the Fed's happy talk and the reality in commodity pits was late 2021. They called inflation 'transitory' while crude was ripping faces off. We all know how that ended. Now, here we are in March 2026, and the market is once again convinced the Fed has it all under control. I'm calling it: they're wron...

So, WTI closed above $100 today, March 30, 2026. First time since the Iran conflict began. Everyone's shouting 'oil to the moon,' but I'm calling it: this is a bull trap. My read on the market, backed by real supply data from my contacts, suggests a mean reversion is coming. Most traders are wrong about this push higher. I'm shorting crude here, ag...

Think this week's news about Venezuelan gold and oil will move the markets? I'm calling it: it's a complete head-fake. The US getting $100M in gold and a bump in heavy crude imports is political theater, not a fundamental shift in supply. Most traders are wrong about this, and I'm positioning to fade the knee-jerk reaction. As Jake Morrison loves t...

Last time we saw this kind of rip in gasoline prices, pushing toward $4.00 a gallon across the US, was back in summer 2022. Everyone was screaming about inflation then, and honestly, the vibes feel pretty similar heading into the end of March 2026. The news is all over it, saying prices are soaring, but as a day trader, I'm not just listening to th...

I almost made a mistake this week. I was getting ready to add to my long gold position, maybe even build a small long in crude, thinking the recent consolidation was a base for the next leg up. Then the Reuters wire lit up this morning. Zelenskyy talking about potential trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi in early March. My entire thesis for the week fli...

I got chopped up on Tuesday. Tried to long the $80 break in WTI crude, looking for a quick run to $81.50. The market faked me out, reversed, and hit my stop in under an hour. A small, disciplined loss, but frustrating. It’s a perfect example of the current environment in oil: a range-bound mess designed to punish breakout traders. This market isn't...

I almost made a mistake this week. Almost got suckered into the 'soft landing' narrative again, watching the S&P 500 flirt with the highs. The noise was getting loud. Then I saw the Goldman note predicting AI will drive real layoffs and push up unemployment this year. It was a cold splash of water. A reminder. The real trade isn't in the tech stock...