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Commodities trader, ex-Trafigura. 10+ years in energy and metals markets. I trade crude, natgas, gold, and agricultural futures. Geopolitics is my technical analysis. Moscow → London → independent.
Every week, I see retail traders pile into LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) thinking they've found a clever, capital-efficient way to 'buy and hold' a stock. They buy a call option two years out, close their laptop, and hope for the best. This is, to put it bluntly, a lazy and deeply flawed approach. You're not buying a stock. You'r...
I got a text this week from a friend who’s new to trading. It was a screenshot of his account, down 90%. The culprit? He bought a bunch of weekly, way out-of-the-money calls on a tech stock right before earnings. A pure lottery ticket. He was hoping for a 10-bagger and instead got a zero. It’s a story I’ve seen a thousand times. It reminds me why m...
Every morning, I scan the options flow and see the same story. A flood of retail money pouring into zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) and weekly options on the SPY and TSLA. It’s a casino. They're buying lottery tickets, hoping for a 10-bagger, and getting crushed by theta decay 99% of the time. I made a living on the other side of those trades at a pr...