Crude oil prices have jumped 12% over the past week, as markets price in the risk of a potential military strike on Iran.

The sharp move reflects rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over possible disruptions to:

• Middle Eastern supply routes
• Hormuz Strait shipping flows
• Global crude export volumes

Iran plays a critical role in regional energy dynamics, and any escalation could significantly tighten supply in already sensitive markets.

• Higher oil prices may increase inflationary pressure
• Bond yields could react to renewed inflation expectations
• Energy stocks may outperform in the short term
• Risk assets could face volatility if geopolitical escalation continues

For traders, the situation highlights how quickly geopolitical risk can translate into commodity-driven macro volatility.

If tensions escalate further, oil could remain elevated — but if fears fade, the rally may unwind just as quickly.