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The last time we saw headlines like this, with analysts screaming about stagflation and supply shocks, was back in the post-COVID haze. Everyone panicked out of risk assets, and what happened? The Fed printed trillions, and Bitcoin went on an absolute tear. So when I saw S&P's warning this morning that Middle East conflict will slow growth and spik...
So here’s what nobody’s talking about this morning. While everyone is losing their minds over the DPRK missile headlines and smashing the sell button, the smart money is quietly loading up. I saw the alerts, I saw the -2.3% dip on BTC, and my first thought wasn't 'risk-off.' It was 'liquidity grab.'
I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Watching the sea of red on Saturday morning—BTC struggling at $70,500, ETH barely holding $2,000—and reading the headlines about Trump's dominance speech and the newly minted 'Ministry of War,' my first instinct was to de-risk. Sell some of my RWA tokens, rotate back into stablecoins, maybe even just ET...
I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. I was deep in the docs of a new perps protocol on Arbitrum, APYs were looking insane, and I was seconds away from migrating a decent chunk of capital. Then the alert hit my screen: Zelensky confirming the US requested to postpone next week's trilateral talks. My hand froze over the 'deposit' button. It ...
This morning's news about Iran letting two Indian LPG tankers pass through Hormuz is a head fake, and I’m looking to buy the dip in crude oil once this knee-jerk selling exhausts itself. I’ve seen this movie before. A small, symbolic gesture gets blown out of proportion, creating a short-term pricing anomaly. For a prop firm trader like me, these a...
I saw it again this morning. A guy on Twitter, account barely a year old, posted a screenshot of his $50,000 loss on weekly SPY puts. He bought them Friday afternoon, convinced this weekend's headlines out of Iran would crash the market. Instead, futures are flat, and his options will open Monday worth pennies. He bought a lottery ticket based on f...
I saw the headline this morning: 'White House to seek additional funding from Congress for Iran operations.' My first thought wasn't about the geopolitics. It was about how many prop firm accounts were going to get blown up today. Most traders see news like this and do one of two things: they either jump in with massive size trying to catch a rocke...
So, the war with Iran ends 'when I feel it in my bones'. I read that headline this morning and my first thought wasn't about geopolitics. It was about the thousands of prop firm challenge accounts that just got vaporized. This is the kind of unpredictable, sentiment-driven headline that separates funded traders from the 95% who fail. It's not a mar...
The Japan SPR news is a head fake; the real trade isn't shorting crude, it's buying gold. I'm seeing the wires flash this morning about Japan planning to release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve on Monday, March 16. The knee-jerk reaction is bearish for crude, and I expect amateurs to start piling into shorts heading into the weekend. They'...
Last time we saw this kind of headline-driven chop was during those Iran uranium talks Ryan Cross covered. One minute the market is ripping on a rumor, the next it's nuking on a clarification. Trump saying 'we are doing well with China' while Beijing calls Taiwan a 'red line' is the exact kind of noise that wrecks new traders. While everyone else i...
