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Crypto Market5 hours ago· 3 min read

Poison, Panic & Profit: A Bitcoin Top Signal?

An attempted murder over crypto losses isn't just a headline. For me, it's a screaming indicator that the market is dangerously overheated.

You can keep your moving averages and RSI. This morning, the most powerful crypto market sentiment indicator I've seen all year wasn't on my TradingView screen. It was a news alert about a man in South Korea poisoning his partner over an $816,000 Bitcoin investment loss. While the market is screaming higher, with BTC touching $66,000, this is the kind of extreme, desperate human behavior that signals a local top is much closer than the bulls think. This isn't the time to be asking about the best altcoins to buy now; it's time to manage risk.

I got my education in the 2018 crash. I learned that fundamentals and technicals break down when raw emotion takes over. We're seeing that now. Funding rates for perpetual swaps have been consistently positive, meaning longs are paying shorts to keep their positions open. That's pure greed. Open interest is climbing. And while my friend Jake Morrison might focus on the macro picture, I'm watching the on-chain data and the human element. The Glassnode charts are flashing warning signs, but this news story is a qualitative signal that quantitative data can't capture. It's the ultimate sign of late-stage retail panic and FOMO.

So, what am I doing? I'm not panic-selling my core Bitcoin position. Never. But I am taking profits on my altcoin swings. I sold a portion of my SOL position at $83 and trimmed some ADA above $0.28. The risk/reward just isn't there for me right now. This kind of froth reminds me of the crazy DeFi yields Luna Park often covers—another sign things are getting overheated. My thesis is simple: we're in for a sharp, nasty correction to wash out the late-comers and over-leveraged players.

Key Resistance Zone: I'm watching the $67,500 - $69,000 area. A failure to hold above here would be very bearish.
First Major Support: A break below $62,500 is my line in the sand. That's where I'd expect the selling to accelerate.
Invalidation: A clean weekly close above $70,000 would invalidate my short-term bearishness, but I see it as low probability.

***

Markets are driven by fear and greed. Attempted murder over an $816,000 loss is about as clear a signal of extreme emotion as you'll ever get.

— Marcus Cole

This isn't financial advice, it's risk management from a guy who has the scars to prove it. Protect your capital, because the market is showing its ugliest, most emotional side. When you see a story like this, does it make you want to leverage long, or does it make you check your stop-losses?