Woke up this morning to headlines screaming about Qatar's Energy Minister threatening a 'force majeure' on gas exports. The news wires are lit up. My phone is buzzing. And my first thought? Fade it. News creates volatility, but charts create profits. While Alex Volkov is probably mapping out the geopolitical fallout, I'm pulling up the $NG_F chart, and what I see is far more interesting than any headline.

Natural Gas has been in the gutter for weeks, a slow bleed that has shaken out all the weak hands. But this kind of high-impact news, dropped on a Friday, is exactly what can trigger a violent reversal. It's a classic scenario: the market is massively short, and now there's a fundamental reason to cover. I'm not a fundamentals guy, but I know a potential short squeeze when I see one. The price action is what matters.

• Current Price Zone: $3.110
• Key Support / Invalidation: $2.980
• Breakout Trigger Level: $3.150
• Initial Target: $3.450

For anyone learning how to read candlestick patterns, the daily chart is trying to hammer out a bottom around the $3.000 psychological level. We've seen multiple wicks down there getting bought up aggressively. That tells me there are buyers defending that zone. Now we just need the catalyst to send it.

I'm not jumping in blind. I have a very specific plan, and if the price doesn't hit my levels, I don't take the trade. Simple as that. After getting chopped up on a few crypto trades earlier this week, I'm being extra disciplined. No revenge trading.

Here's the real kicker. On the 4-hour chart, price made a lower low on Wednesday, but the RSI(14) printed a higher low. This is a textbook bullish RSI divergence strategy, and it’s one of my highest-probability setups. It shows that the downward momentum is fading fast, even as the price makes one final push lower. The sellers are getting exhausted.

So, here's the play: I have a buy-stop order sitting at $3.155, just above the local resistance. I want to see the price prove it has the strength to break out before I get in. My stop loss is tight, right under the swing low at $2.980. My first target is the resistance zone at $3.450. The risk/reward on this is almost 1:1.7, which is a setup I'll take any day of the week.

This is a high-volatility setup, and it can go wrong fast. If the news turns out to be a nothing-burger and we nuke right through the $2.980 support, this trade is dead on arrival. I'll be stopped out for a small, manageable loss and move on. The biggest danger is a nasty fakeout—a rip above $3.150 that sucks in buyers like me, only to reverse and dump hard. That's why the stop loss is non-negotiable.

A move like this in energy can also have ripple effects. As Marcus Cole often notes, a spike in energy prices is a major macro risk that can crush risk assets like crypto, regardless of how good the on-chain data looks. So even if you're not trading $NG_F, you should be watching it.

This whole situation is a perfect example of why I believe that solid technical analysis for beginners and pros alike should always start with pure price action. The news is just the match, but the chart is the powder keg. So, am I crazy for trying to long this chaos, or is this the exact kind of volatility where the best trades are born?

Read More on TradersWeek:→ AI Layoffs Are Bullish. Here's How I'm Trading It.→ Warsh for Fed Chair? How I'm Trading This Volatility Spike→ Trading the Oil Panic Through the Brent WTI Spread

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