Another week, another regulator swinging a bat at something they don't understand. This time, it's the Washington State AG suing Kalshi, claiming their prediction markets are just 'disguised gambling'. Honestly, I saw the headline Friday and just rolled my eyes. While the talking heads debate the semantics, I'm focused on the only thing that pays the bills: price action. This kind of news just creates chop and liquidity grabs, which is fine by me. It doesn't change the critical support and resistance levels today; it just makes hitting them a bit more volatile.

This whole situation echoes the same regulatory FUD we see in crypto. My buddy Marcus Cole wrote about the extreme fear in Bitcoin last week, and it's the same pattern. When the suits get involved, weak hands fold. Strong hands watch the levels. For me, whether you're betting on the next CPI print on Kalshi or trading EUR/USD through the news, it's all speculation on a future outcome. The government trying to draw a line in the sand is just a distraction.

In a way, yes. Both are about pricing future events. You're analyzing data to predict an outcome and putting capital at risk for a return. The difference is the asset. In Forex, you're trading the relative value of two economies. On Kalshi, you're trading a binary 'yes/no' on a specific event. It's a different product, but the speculator's mindset is identical.

I stick to Forex and Futures because the charts give me everything I need. I don't need to be a political expert to trade a breakout retest on the GBP/JPY. The volume profile and the candle structure tell me the story. That's my edge. Let the lawyers argue; I'll be watching the tape.

Last week was choppy. I got stopped out on a **SOL** long trying to catch a falling knife—a classic mistake, and a good reminder to stick to the plan. This week, I'm clearing my whiteboard and focusing on these levels for the majors.

• EUR/USD: Key support at 1.0750. Resistance at 1.0880. The daily 21 EMA is acting as dynamic resistance, watching for a rejection there.
• GBP/JPY: Monster resistance at the 191.50 psychological level. A break and hold above could see a massive rip higher. Support is way down at 189.00.
• AUD/USD: Looking weak. Below 0.6500 is pure air until the 0.6440 support zone. This is my top watch for a short setup.

I'm not doing anything fancy. My favorite moving average crossover strategy right now is watching the 4H chart for the 9 EMA to cross below the 21 EMA on pairs showing relative weakness, like the Aussie. Pair that with a lower high structure and declining volume on the push up, and you have one of the best day trading setups today. It's simple, repeatable, and keeps the emotion out of it. It’s the kind of pure price action that guys like Alex Volkov would say reflects the underlying macro weakness without needing to read a thousand reports.

The chart for AUD/USD is screaming weakness. We had a clean breakdown of the 0.6520 support level on Friday, and the overnight session has been flagging below it. This is a textbook breakout retest setup in the making.

Here's my plan, written right here on my whiteboard:

1. Entry: Look for a short entry on a retest of the 0.6515 - 0.6525 area. I want to see a rejection wick on the 1H or 4H chart.
2. Stop Loss: A tight stop at 0.6555. If we reclaim the old support convincingly, the thesis is dead.
3. Target 1: Take partial profits at 0.6480 to de-risk the trade.
4. Target 2: Let the rest run to the major support level at 0.6445.

This gives me a clean 2.5R trade on the first target alone. The key is patience. If the retest doesn't happen, I don't chase the trade down. Chasing is how you blow up accounts. I've learned that the hard way. If I get stopped out, I'm shutting down the charts for a few hours to avoid revenge trading. It's my biggest weakness and something I journal about every single day.

So yeah, the Kalshi lawsuit is interesting dinner party conversation, but it's not a trading strategy. Focus on your levels, manage your risk, and execute your plan. The rest is just noise. What's the biggest market noise you're trying to ignore this week?