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I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

So here's what nobody seems to be talking about with the private credit sell-off today. Yes, the headlines are ugly. Seeing names like Blackstone (BX) down 8% and Ares (ARES) getting hit for a staggering 11% intraday is enough to make anyone nervous. The narrative is that the high-rate environment is finally cracking the foundation of the private m...

The market has a flair for the dramatic. Closing the SPY at exactly $666.00 on the eve of Friday the 13th is the kind of thing screenwriters invent. I can already see the chatter online, the superstitious warnings, the chartists drawing hellish patterns. While the numerology is amusing, my job isn't to read tea leaves; it's to read balance sheets. ...

I almost made a mistake this week. Seeing a stock like Lambumiz (LMBZ) drop 18% in two weeks triggers that value-investor instinct. The temptation to buy a falling knife is always there, especially when the company hands you a simple, clean story for the decline. But as I learned at Goldman, the easy story is rarely the whole story.

We closed Friday with the S&P 500 up 1.2%, but the VIX stubbornly finished above 21. That's the kind of divergence that gets my attention. The price action says 'relief rally', but the volatility market is whispering 'don't get comfortable'. After four years at Goldman Sachs, I learned to listen to the whisper, not the shout. Heading into this week...

The bond market is sending a clear message that equity investors are choosing to ignore: the real cost of capital is much higher than we think. While the S&P 500 flirts with all-time highs, I was watching something else entirely this morning. Russia's Ministry of Finance placed bonds yielding a staggering 14.75%. This isn't just some esoteric data ...

The top ten stocks in the NASDAQ 100 now make up over 55% of the index's entire market cap. Let that sink in. For years, the strategy has been simple: buy the QQQ and watch it run. But I'm seeing a fundamental fracture beneath the surface that this passive approach is completely ignoring. While the market is chasing the same handful of names, it's ...

Here's a number that keeps me grounded: of the tech companies that went public in the 2021 frenzy, nearly two-thirds are trading below their initial IPO price today. Think about that. All the champagne pops, the ringing bells, the breathless financial news coverage—it mostly led to losses for public market investors who bought into the hype. That's...