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Stop Watching news - Start Making it.

Think those Polymarket degens are right about $100 oil this month? I'm seeing the chatter, the 'yes' shares climbing on the prediction market, and it reminds me of every other retail-driven frenzy I've faded for the last twelve years. The short answer is no. This is a classic overreaction to geopolitical noise, and the supply/demand fundamentals si...

Think you have time to get long oil? Think again. The headlines are flashing warnings from Goldman about a 'historic supply shock,' and the chart-watchers are pointing to acceptable Western inventory levels as a reason not to panic. They are dangerously wrong. The panic hasn't started because the market is staring at the wrong data. This isn't a sp...

The wires lit up this morning with Trump's interview in the FT, openly talking about seizing Iranian oil and controlling Kharg Island. The knee-jerk reaction is a spike in the geopolitical risk premium. WTI (CL) jumped 1.2% in the overnight session on the news. Most traders see this and think 'long oil'. They're wrong. This is election-year noise, ...

$88.55. That's the price that flashed on my screen this morning, stopping me out of a WTI short for a tidy little loss. The Goldman and Morgan Stanley notes about oil 'demand destruction' were the talk of the wire, and I bit. I shorted. I was wrong. The market just taught me a lesson I already knew: the big banks aren't your friends, and headlines ...

That $180 oil headline is a gift. As soon as the WSJ story dropped this morning about Saudi Arabia expecting a price spike, my phone lit up. Amateurs piling in, chasing a narrative. I'm doing the opposite: mapping out my entry to short this hysteria.

Got off a call this morning with a contact in Midland. He's not watching the news headlines from D.C. He's watching rig counts and listening to the chatter from roughnecks. Their takeaway? This SPR release is a joke. A political stunt designed to make it look like someone's doing something. While the talking heads on TV panicked, the real players i...

Goldman's new oil forecast is a joke, and I'm fading their conservatism. They just bumped their 2026 Brent target to $77 from $71 this morning. It's a classic case of analysts playing catch-up to a reality that traders on the floor have seen coming for months. The real story isn't a timid upgrade; it's the structural deficit that's about to send cr...

Goldman Sachs put out a note today raising their 2026 TTF gas forecast to €46/MWh. The market saw it, nodded sagely, and priced in a little bump. Most traders are wrong about what this means. They see a respected bank validating a slow grind up. I see a lagging indicator from analysts who are just now catching up to the facts on the ground. They're...

So a European Commissioner states the obvious: natural gas prices are up nearly 90% and oil is up 40%. The headlines are screaming. The twitter gurus are panicking. And most traders are about to get run over. I'm calling it: the EU gas story is a trap. It reminds me of the exact setup that blew up my first account — a vicious, headline-driven short...

Woke up this morning to headlines about a second 100 million barrel oil shipment from Venezuela. The market is reacting, but most traders are getting this dead wrong. This isn't a supply story; it's a political press release. I've seen this movie before. They trot out a big number to spook the market and try to jawbone prices down ahead of an OPEC ...