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Crypto Market2 days ago· 3 min read

BTC Drops, But Don't Blame Trump's Tariffs

The mainstream media is pointing fingers at politics, but the on-chain data shows a classic story of over-leveraged traders getting wiped out. Here's what really happened.

Let me guess, you saw the headlines this morning. 'Bitcoin Plunges on Trump Tariff Uncertainty.' It's a neat, tidy narrative that fits nicely into a two-minute cable news segment. But it's also complete nonsense. The real reason BTC tumbled from over $68,000 to test $65,900 has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with greed. The on-chain data was screaming it for days: the market was dangerously long.

For the past week, I've been watching funding rates on perpetual futures creep into absurdly positive territory. When everyone is paying a premium to be long, it only takes a small dip to trigger a cascade of liquidations. That's exactly what we saw. Billions in open interest got wiped out in a few hours. While Marcus Cole was probably watching the bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, I was watching the liquidation heatmaps light up like a Christmas tree. This wasn't a fundamental shift; it was a technical cleansing.

Unsurprisingly, the pain wasn't isolated to Bitcoin. ETH dropped to near $3,450, and high-beta assets like SOL got hit even harder, falling over 7%. This deleveraging immediately spilled over into the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. My dashboards show that total value locked (TVL) in major lending protocols like Aave and Compound dipped by a few percentage points as traders scrambled to close positions or got liquidated. It’s a classic reminder that during a market flush, on-chain leverage can accelerate the crash.

Moments like these are why I've allocated about 20% of my portfolio to RWA tokens. While the rest of the market was bleeding, tokenized treasury products were, well, boringly stable. It's a perfect example of RWA tokenization explained in real-time: linking a token to a real-world, low-volatility asset provides a haven. It won't give you 100x returns, but it won't give you a -30% liquidation cascade either. It's about building an all-weather portfolio, something I think even a macro expert like Alex Volkov would appreciate when global uncertainty spikes.

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  • BTC Support: The key level for me is holding $65,500. A break below that on volume could signal more pain ahead.
  • Funding Rates: I want to see funding rates flip neutral or slightly negative. If they stay highly positive, it means the degens are already levering back up.
  • DeFi Liquidations: Specifically watching the Aave health factors on large whale accounts. Are they close to another cascade?
Narratives are for clicks. On-chain data is for profit. The market just reminded everyone which one matters more.
— Luna Park

Ultimately, this was a much-needed reset. The market punished reckless leverage and rewarded those who were patient. We shook out the weak hands, and now we can look for a healthier foundation to build the next leg up. But the big question remains: was this flush enough to clear out the excess, or is this just the appetizer for a deeper correction?

BTCUSD Chart
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