So the White House is jawboning oil again. The Bloomberg wire lit up this morning with headlines about the Trump administration 'considering all options' to curb rising prices. The market sold off a quick buck on the news, as expected. Weak hands get shaken out. But here's the deal: this is noise. It's political theater heading into mid-terms. My contacts in Houston are telling me the physical market is still tighter than a drum. We're seeing inventory draws that defy seasonal norms, and that's the only signal that matters.

Let's be clear. 'Considering options' means nothing until we see barrels released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). And even then, an SPR release is a temporary band-aid on a structural supply deficit. OPEC+ is holding the line on production cuts — I've tracked every one of their meetings since 2016, and they don't fold to political pressure unless it serves their own interests. The current WTI price around $101.50 is a reflection of reality, not rhetoric. While macro guys like Jake Morrison are looking at the big picture, the specific story in energy futures is about one thing: a lack of supply.

• Current Position: Long CLJ26 (April Crude Oil futures)
• Entry: Averaged in around $98.50
• Stop-Loss: Trailing stop now at $97.25, just below the 21-day EMA
• Profit Target: Taking first profits at $105.00, holding the rest for $110.00

The trend is my friend here. Any dip on this political noise is a buying opportunity as far as I'm concerned. The structure on the 4-hour chart is a clear series of higher highs and higher lows. Until that breaks, selling is just picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

This kind of political instability is exactly why I keep 20% of my book in physical gold. The whole gold vs silver investment debate is simple for me: gold is money, silver is an industrial metal with some monetary properties. When governments start trying to manipulate markets, you don't want industrial exposure, you want a pure safe haven. I'm adding to my GC futures position above $2,400. Meanwhile, the 'digital tulips' are getting crushed today, with Bitcoin down almost 3%. This is the difference between a real asset and a speculative token. Sorry, Emma Blackwood, but in this environment, I'll take hard assets over tech stocks and digital fantasies every single time.

My bullish commodities market outlook gets torched by two things. First, a real, coordinated SPR release of over 100 million barrels, not just a token 30 million. Second, a surprise announcement from OPEC+ that they're abandoning quotas. If WTI has a weekly close below its 50-day moving average, currently around $94.00, I'm out of my longs and reassessing from the sidelines. I never marry a position.

So as we head into the Friday close, I'm watching the levels, not the headlines. The Commitment of Traders report drops this afternoon, and I expect to see speculative length continuing to build. Am I the only one who thinks this White House chatter is a complete smokescreen for a fundamentally bullish supply picture?

Read More on TradersWeek:→ Geopolitics & Gold: My Funded Account Trade Plan→ Goldman's $100 Oil Call is a Week Late and a Dollar Short→ Trading the Oil Panic Through the Brent WTI Spread

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