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Futures Market2 days ago· 3 min read

Goldman's S&P 7600 Call is a Smokescreen for Inflation

Wall Street is cheering a new stock market target, but they're missing the real story. The fuse has been lit for a major commodities run.

So Goldman is all over the wire this morning. They've raised their S&P 500 target to a lofty 7600, but buried the lede: they're also hiking their inflation forecast and pushing back Fed rate cuts because of Iran. Most traders are cheering the headline number. I think they're being played. The real signal here isn't to buy stocks; it's to buy the raw materials that are causing the inflation in the first place.

You can't have it both ways. You can't have sticky, geopolitically-driven inflation and a perpetually rising stock market without something breaking. The market is ignoring the cause (supply shocks, tight commodity markets) and just trading the effect (higher equity targets). My friend Jake Morrison is right to fade the knee-jerk headline reaction, but I'm taking it a step further. The tension in the Strait of Hormuz isn't just a headline; it's a direct threat to the 20 million barrels of oil that pass through it daily. That's real, and it's not priced in.

Crude Oil (CL): Pushing $95/bbl. Any escalation and we see triple digits fast.
Copper (HG): Holding firm above $4.50/lb. The industrial demand is relentless.
Gold (GC): My core physical position is happy, and futures are consolidating above $2,400/oz.
Silver (SI): Lagging gold, but the industrial-plus-monetary demand setup is explosive.

I'm calling it: this is the start. While analysts like Emma Blackwood are focused on institutional flows into tech, the real money is quietly moving into hard assets. The copper demand forecast 2026 is screaming supply deficit, driven by grid buildouts and EVs. We're also seeing the conditions for another massive silver squeeze potential, but this time it won't be retail hype—it'll be industrial buyers panicking. This isn't a chart pattern; it's a fundamental breakdown in the supply chain. I'm adding to my silver futures here at $28.50.

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My thesis is simple: inflation caused by scarce things makes those scarce things more valuable. I'm long gold and silver futures, and I'm looking for a spot to get long crude on a dip. My stop on my SI position is a weekly close below $26.00. What kills this trade? Two things: a sudden, verifiable de-escalation with Iran that sends oil tumbling, or a sharp, unexpected global recession that craters demand. Until I see one of those, I'm pressing my longs in hard assets.