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I almost made a mistake this week. Seeing the choppy price action and listening to the endless debate about the Fed's next move, I was tempted to build out a few tactical shorts in some of the frothier names in the Nasdaq. My fundamental work showed stretched valuations. But then the Goldman Sachs positioning data hit my screen Thursday morning, an...

I almost made a big mistake this week. A really dumb one. I saw that scary Bank of America chart making the rounds—the one showing S&P 500 concentration at dot-com bubble levels—and my finger twitched over the 'sell' button. The narrative felt right. The fear felt real. For a second, I forgot my most important rule: headlines don't pay the bills, p...

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

Is this recent geopolitical shudder the 'big one' everyone’s been waiting for? A note from Deutsche Bank hit the wires this morning highlighting that the S&P 500's drop was sharper than the historical average for these kinds of shocks. While the headlines are ugly, my initial analysis suggests this is a volatility event, not a fundamental shift. I'...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Watching the SP500 bleed for the fourth straight week, every instinct screamed 'buy the dip.' The little voice that wants a heroic bottom call got loud. But then the trader who has failed over 20 prop firm challenges took over. That trader—the one who's actually profitable—knows that fighting a trend li...

I almost made a big mistake this week. Got stopped out on a long Tuesday morning and immediately wanted to slam a revenge trade on, double leverage. Had to literally get up from my desk and walk it off. It’s my Achilles heel. But taking that breath gave me a chance to zoom out, and then I saw this Apollo stat that made everything click: 80-90% of A...

Midterm election years are where S&P 500 longs go to die, and I'm trading this one like it's no exception. I saw that stat from Carlson mt making the rounds, and while most people dismiss it as trivia, I see it as a roadmap. For me, 2026 isn't the year to be a hero buying every dip. It's the year to trade level-to-level, respect risk, and assume ev...