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Stop Watching news - Start Making it.

I almost made a big mistake this week. A really dumb one. I saw that scary Bank of America chart making the rounds—the one showing S&P 500 concentration at dot-com bubble levels—and my finger twitched over the 'sell' button. The narrative felt right. The fear felt real. For a second, I forgot my most important rule: headlines don't pay the bills, p...

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

Is this recent geopolitical shudder the 'big one' everyone’s been waiting for? A note from Deutsche Bank hit the wires this morning highlighting that the S&P 500's drop was sharper than the historical average for these kinds of shocks. While the headlines are ugly, my initial analysis suggests this is a volatility event, not a fundamental shift. I'...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...

I almost made a mistake this week. A big one. Watching the SP500 bleed for the fourth straight week, every instinct screamed 'buy the dip.' The little voice that wants a heroic bottom call got loud. But then the trader who has failed over 20 prop firm challenges took over. That trader—the one who's actually profitable—knows that fighting a trend li...

I almost made a big mistake this week. Got stopped out on a long Tuesday morning and immediately wanted to slam a revenge trade on, double leverage. Had to literally get up from my desk and walk it off. It’s my Achilles heel. But taking that breath gave me a chance to zoom out, and then I saw this Apollo stat that made everything click: 80-90% of A...

Midterm election years are where S&P 500 longs go to die, and I'm trading this one like it's no exception. I saw that stat from Carlson mt making the rounds, and while most people dismiss it as trivia, I see it as a roadmap. For me, 2026 isn't the year to be a hero buying every dip. It's the year to trade level-to-level, respect risk, and assume ev...

The screens were a sea of red this morning. The S&P 500 opened down another 1.2%, pushing its drawdown from the recent highs to nearly -7% on the back of escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Immediately, the classic Wall Street adage started making the rounds, backed by research notes from Deutsche and Morgan Stanley: 'geopolitical dips are ...