Last time we saw bureaucrats try to kill an oil rally with a strategic reserve release was late 2021. The market dipped for a few weeks, shook out the weak hands, and then WTI ripped from $78 to over $120. This week's IEA announcement feels like deja vu. They're releasing supplies that are a drop in the ocean of global demand, and the price action heading into Friday's close tells me the smart money knows it. This isn't a top; it's a discount.

The IEA news knocked WTI from $92.30 down to a low of $87.45. That's our new playground. The paper traders are spooked, but the physical market is still screaming tight. My contacts in Houston are talking about export demand that just won't quit. This dip is a mean reversion setup gift-wrapped by politicians. Ignore the headlines, trade the levels.

• Major Support: The $87.00 - $87.50 zone. This is the panic low. If we hold here, bulls are in control.
• Pivot Zone: The $89.50 area. This was prior support, now it's the first hurdle to clear.
• Key Resistance: The pre-announcement high of $92.30. This is my first major target.
• Invalidation Level: A daily close below $86.50 tells me I'm wrong and a deeper correction is underway.

My focus is singular right now: energy. While my friend Jake Morrison is busy fading pops in stocks like FedEx, I see the real value in hard assets. The so-called commodities supercycle 2026 isn't dead, it's just getting started.

This is my highest conviction trade. The market overreacted. An SPR release is a temporary patch, not a long-term supply solution. OPEC isn't rushing to pump more, and demand from Asia is relentless. I'm looking for a bullish reversal pattern on the 4H chart inside my support zone to add to my long position.

I've got scars from this market—it was a $30,000 tuition bill back in the day. But the current natural gas trading setup is looking interesting. We're seeing a potential seasonal bottom form. I'm not trading it yet, but if NG can reclaim the $2.80/MMBtu level with conviction, I might take a small position. For now, it's just on the watchlist.

Here's the exact trade I'm putting on. I'm not waiting for perfect confirmation because the risk/reward is skewed in my favor right now. While others are distracted by digital tulips or what Emma Blackwood is digging up in the tech sector, the real money is in the ground.

1. Asset: WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
2. Entry: Scaling in between $87.80 and $88.20.
3. Stop Loss: Hard stop at $86.90. I'm wrong if we take out the weekly low.
4. Profit Target: Taking first profits at $91.50, leaving a runner for a test of $93.00+.

My thesis is invalidated if we see a coordinated release announcement from multiple non-IEA countries or if next week's EIA report shows a shocking build in inventories. Barring that, I see this as a high-probability setup. Are you buying this government-sponsored dip with me, or are you letting the headlines scare you away from the real trade?