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I spent this past weekend staring at a single, stubborn red line in my P&L spreadsheet. The position was in NVIDIA (NVDA), a name I've followed for years and whose fundamentals I know inside and out. I kept re-running my DCF model, checking the footnotes in their last 10-K, and I couldn't shake the feeling I'd missed something obvious. Then, this m...

So here’s what nobody’s talking about with this Goldman note on CTA selling. Yes, the S&P 500 rallied 2% and the NASDAQ followed suit, which feels great after last week’s chop. The headlines are screaming 'contrarian buy signal' because systematic funds have apparently capitulated. From my time at Goldman, I know these flow-of-funds reports are inf...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ's brutal plunge to 6-month lows this week, fueled by what some are calling an 'Epic Rage' sell-off, is undeniably painful for many, but my deep fundamental analysis suggests this capitulation is creating compelling entry points, especially for those with a robust stock market crash protection strategy already in place. As of ...

This morning, like every morning, I scanned the pre-market movers. Unsurprisingly, it's the usual suspects—the high-beta tech names. The entire conversation on FinTwitter seems to be about the looming NASDAQ correction how to trade it, and whether this is another dip to buy. I think that's lazy analysis. While everyone is performing the same tired ...

The NASDAQ-100 finished Friday's session in a state of indecision, capping a week of chop that has many questioning the next move. After digesting a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print of 3.4%, the market seems exhausted. For weeks, the story has been simple: buy the leaders. But my recent screeners show a clear divergence. While the index hold...

So here’s what nobody is talking about this morning. Everyone is seeing the headlines – South Korean KOSDAQ plummets 13%, trading halted – and immediately jumping to the lazy conclusion. They're blaming energy supply fears through the Strait of Hormuz. And while that's a factor, it’s not the real story. The real story is that the market just sent u...

The top ten stocks in the NASDAQ 100 now make up over 55% of the index's entire market cap. Let that sink in. For years, the strategy has been simple: buy the QQQ and watch it run. But I'm seeing a fundamental fracture beneath the surface that this passive approach is completely ignoring. While the market is chasing the same handful of names, it's ...

Last time we saw a divergence this wide among market leaders was heading into the choppy markets of 2018. The generals weren't marching together, and it led to a nasty drawdown. Now, Barclays data shows the positive correlation between US Big Tech stocks has cratered to its lowest level in a decade. The whole 'Magnificent 7' trade is fracturing. So...

I've been looking at the pre-market movers every morning, and the sentiment is getting dangerously euphoric. Everyone seems to think the AI-fueled rally in mega-cap tech is a one-way street. My detailed stock market analysis this week suggests this is precisely the kind of complacency that precedes a correction. The S&P 500 is trading at a forward ...