Last time we saw this level of political jawboning around oil prices was back in late 2022, just before the midterms. Now, the wires are hot with chatter that Trump wants to keep crude below $100 a barrel. Frankly, what president *doesn't* want lower gas prices? This isn't alpha; it's election-year politics. The real story isn't in Washington D.C., it's in the oil fields and on the charts. My crude oil price analysis shows the path of least resistance is still higher, and headlines aren't enough to change my position.

Let's be clear: a president's wishes don't set the price of oil. OPEC+ decisions, global demand, refinery capacity, and inventory levels do. I've tracked every OPEC decision since 2016 in a spreadsheet, and their resolve to maintain current production cuts is firm. They need prices north of $80 to balance their budgets. As Jake Morrison correctly pointed out after the last Iran scare, you have to trade the levels on the chart, not the knee-jerk news headlines. The market has a short memory for this kind of political posturing.

My contacts in the Permian Basin are telling me that while production is strong, the rate of new rig deployment has plateaued. They're focused on capital discipline, not drilling at all costs. Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is at multi-decade lows, removing a key buffer the government had to artificially suppress prices. The fundamental commodities market outlook remains constructive for oil bulls. The supply side is tight, and demand from Asia, while not explosive, hasn't fallen off a cliff either. The balance is delicate.

I'm still holding my long position in May Crude (CLK26) from an entry of $88.50. My stop is a daily close below the 50-day moving average, which currently sits around $86.00. The 21-day EMA has been providing solid support on pullbacks, and the COT report from Friday showed commercials are still heavily net short—a bullish sign for me. They're hedging producer output, expecting higher prices.

• Position: Long CLK26 from $88.50.
• Key Support: $86.00 (50-day MA).
• Profit Target 1: $94.50.
• Invalidation: A daily close below $86.00.

My natural gas trading strategy is the complete opposite. This isn't a trend-following play; it's pure mean reversion. With winter's peak demand behind us, I'm looking to short any pops on the May contract (NGK26) above the $3.50 level. Unlike the digital tulips that Emma Blackwood sometimes covers, you can't just print more gas to meet demand, but seasonality is a powerful force here. The setup is clear.

The Trump headline is a distraction. A sideshow. I'm focused on the weekly inventory reports and the Baker Hughes rig count. Those are real data points. The risk to my long oil thesis isn't a tweet; it's a surprise OPEC production increase or a sharp, unexpected drop in global PMI data. That's what would force me to exit. Until then, the trend is my friend.

Am I being too dismissive of the White House's influence? How much weight do you give political headlines when your hard-earned capital is actually on the line?