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See that headline about Trump's $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY2027? Most people see politics. I see a setup. This isn't about red or blue; it's about green. A firehose of government money is about to be pointed directly at the defense sector, and that means volatility, volume, and opportunity for anyone who knows how to read a chart.

The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio crossed my screen this morning at 19.5x. That single number is why I'm taking Fundstrat's call on a market bottom with a serious grain of salt. While many are celebrating the recent bounce off the lows, that multiple is still stubbornly above the 10-year average of 17.8x. A true, durable bottom isn't just a pause in ...

The VIX closed yesterday at 14.2. For an index supposedly testing the lower bound of a multi-year channel near S&P 500 5,600, that feels... incredibly complacent. The chatter on the desk is all about 'Operation Epic Fury', a term I suspect is some fund's internal name for a major rotation. While everyone is drawing lines on a chart, I'm digging int...

Last time we saw chop like this was back in late 2022. Sideways, violent, and designed to liquidate anyone with a weak stomach. The talking heads are screaming about AI signals and quant funds, but all I see are traders getting bled out by a thousand cuts. The consensus is that you need a more complex system to navigate this. They're dead wrong. Th...

Fading irrational, headline-driven pre-market moves has merit, even if the trading signal comes from the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Last week’s choppy price action in the SPX, which closed down 0.8%, showed just how sensitive this market is to headlines, with every oil price tick making traders jumpy. While I'm not setting up a Ghalibaf-the...

The screens were a sea of red this morning. The S&P 500 opened down another 1.2%, pushing its drawdown from the recent highs to nearly -7% on the back of escalating tensions in the South China Sea. Immediately, the classic Wall Street adage started making the rounds, backed by research notes from Deutsche and Morgan Stanley: 'geopolitical dips are ...

I was staring at my screen this morning, coffee in hand, watching my position in $GOOGL trade completely flat while the rest of the S&P 500 was trying to rally. A few years ago, that would have been impossible. If the S&P was green, the giants were green. Period. But as Bloomberg's data confirmed today, the tight, positive correlation between the M...

I was staring at my screen this morning, coffee in hand, watching my position in $GOOGL trade completely flat while the rest of the S&P 500 was trying to rally. A few years ago, that would have been impossible. If the S&P was green, the giants were green. Period. But as Bloomberg's data confirmed today, the tight, positive correlation between the M...

The Magnificent Seven's new all-time high isn't a signal to buy more; for me, it’s a clear signal to trim and rebalance. As the headlines celebrated the index pushing to new heights heading into Friday's close, I was executing sell orders on a few of my biggest winners. It might sound counterintuitive, but I learned a painful lesson about concentra...

The NASDAQ-100 finished Friday's session in a state of indecision, capping a week of chop that has many questioning the next move. After digesting a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print of 3.4%, the market seems exhausted. For weeks, the story has been simple: buy the leaders. But my recent screeners show a clear divergence. While the index hold...