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Stock Market3 hours ago· 5 min read

SP 500 at 7500? My Levels to Trade This Week, Not 2026

Analysts are calling for massive gains in the S&P 500, but I'm a trader, not a fortune teller. Here's the price action I'm watching right now.

A Reuters poll dropped this morning saying analysts see the S&P 500 hitting 7500 by the end of 2026. That's a nice headline. But I quit my marketing job in 2019 to trade the charts, not analyst predictions. Last time we saw this kind of blue-sky forecasting was late 2021, right before everything dumped. So forgive me if I focus on the price action right in front of my face. Long-term targets are great for conversation, but they don't help you manage risk on a Tuesday morning.

The market gave us mostly sideways chop last week. We saw a nasty fakeout above the 5450 level on the ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) before it slammed back down into the range. That tells me sellers are still active overhead. But the dip was bought up pretty aggressively. Classic range-bound stuff. This is the kind of price action that bleeds accounts dry if you don't have a plan. It's a battleground, and this week, I'm looking for a winner to emerge.

Major Support Zone: 5380-5400. This has to hold for bulls.
Key Pivot / Balance Area: 5440. The market loves this price.
Overhead Resistance: 5485. The line in the sand for shorts.
Blow-off Top Target: 5520. If resistance breaks, this is the next stop.

I mark these up every single morning. No indicators, just pure horizontal levels where price has reacted before. This is the foundation of simple support and resistance trading, and honestly, it’s all you need to find an edge.

This is the textbook long setup I live for. If we see a strong, high-volume push through that 5485 resistance, I'm not chasing it. I'm waiting. I want to see price come back down, tap that 5485 level from above, and hold. If it holds and we get a bullish candle pattern, that's my entry. The catalyst could be anything—some hot inflation data or a big earnings beat. Sarah Chen is the one to follow for the deep dives on company fundamentals, but for me, the price action is the final confirmation.

This is my preferred setup right now. We push up into that 5485 resistance, maybe even poke a little above it to trap the breakout traders, and then get slammed back down on heavy volume. A long upper wick on the 4-hour or daily chart would be the signal. This failed auction shows buyers just don't have the juice to continue higher. It's a powerful pattern, and the ensuing drop can be fast and violent. It's the kind of volatility that my friend Alex Volkov sees all the time in crypto, and it's a beautiful thing to catch on the right side.

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My primary trade idea this week is to short a rejection at the 5485 level. I'll be looking for an entry around 5480 with a stop loss just above the highs, maybe at 5510. My first target would be the pivot at 5440, and the second would be the support zone at 5400. That's a risk/reward of over 2.5:1. I love that.

Where does this go wrong? A surprise news event blows us straight through resistance and I get stopped out. The real danger for me, personally, is taking that loss and immediately trying to short again out of anger. Revenge trading. It's my Achilles' heel, and something I have to actively manage by literally walking away from my desk after a loss. My trading journal is proof that no good trade ever starts with 'I need to make that money back'.

Forget 7500 in 2026. The only level that matters is the next one on your chart. Trade what you see, not what you hope for.

— Jake Morrison

So while the talking heads debate a target two years away, I'll be watching the 15-minute chart for my entry. The tape doesn't lie. The question I'm asking myself is this: are the big players using this bullish news to distribute their shares to retail at the top, or are they just reloading for the next massive leg up?