So, the FOMO is back. My phone has been buzzing all morning with alerts, Santiment data is flashing 'extreme greed', and everyone on Twitter is suddenly a genius again. Bitcoin rips 5% to over $68,000 and the party is apparently back on. But as I look at my dual-monitor setup, with TradingView on the left and Glassnode on the right, I'm not popping any champagne. In fact, I'm more skeptical than I've been all month. This bounce looks clean, but it smells wrong. This is the kind of move that gets retail traders liquidated, and I've seen it play out too many times since the 2018 crash to fall for it. My BTC core position is untouched, but I'm absolutely not adding here. This isn't strength; it's a trap.

Let's break down this price action. What does the crowd see? They see a strong bounce from the low $60ks, a break of recent resistance, and they're rushing to get back in before it hits all-time highs. What do I see? I see a pump on declining volume. The volume that pushed us up from $65k to $68k is nearly 30% lower than the volume that dumped us there in the first place. That's a massive red flag. Real, sustainable moves are driven by overwhelming volume, not a lukewarm float upwards.

Then I look at the derivatives data. This morning, funding rates for BTC perps have already reset and are creeping back into positive territory, around +0.015% on major exchanges. This isn't the deep negative funding we see at a true bottom, where shorts are squeezed and forced to cover. Instead, it shows eager longs are already piling in, providing the perfect liquidity for larger players to sell into. It’s a textbook liquidity grab. This kind of chop reminds me of the indecisive price action Jake Morrison has been flagging in the S&P 500, where relief rallies can be incredibly deceiving.

Price is just one piece of the puzzle. The blockchain tells a deeper story. My daily check on Glassnode this morning was revealing. We are not seeing the massive exchange outflows that characterize the start of a new leg up. Netflows are hovering around neutral. During the run-up to $73k in March, we saw sustained outflows of over 20,000 BTC per day as coins moved to cold storage. Right now? It’s a trickle. This tells me smart money isn't accumulating with conviction; they're either waiting or distributing into this retail-driven pump.

• Key Support: The real test is at the $64,500 level. A break below that would confirm the downtrend.
• Resistance Zone: We're hitting a wall between $68,800 and $69,500. I expect sellers to step in hard here.
• Invalidation: A daily close above $70,500 on high volume would make me reconsider my bearish thesis.
• MVRV Z-Score: Still elevated, suggesting we're not in the deep value 'buy zone' yet.

And of course, the altcoins are flying. Cardano (ADA) up 11%, Ethereum (ETH) up 9%. This is another classic sign of a weak rally. When lower-quality assets with less liquidity outperform the market leader, it's often a sign of speculative retail froth, not institutional buying. People are frantically searching for the best altcoins to buy now, hoping to catch a 10x. This is exit liquidity behavior, not the foundation of a healthy market. If you want a deep dive on which of these ecosystems have actual substance, I'd check out what Luna Park is writing about; she's great at separating the signal from the noise in DeFi. But for me, this altcoin pump is a signal that the rally's foundations are shaky.

So, I’m staying put. My strategy is simple: wait for confirmation. I'm not shorting this market—that's a fool's game without a clear top signal—but I'm certainly not deploying fresh capital. I believe we are more likely to see a test of $60,000 before we see $75,000. This rally feels like the market's last attempt to shake out weak hands and draw in FOMO buyers before the next real move.

What would change my mind? As I said, a powerful, high-volume close above the $70,500 resistance. If we see that, coupled with a surge in exchange outflows and a reset in open interest, then I’ll gladly admit I was wrong and look for long entries. Until then, I'm content to watch from the sidelines. Patience is the most profitable tool a trader has, especially when the crowd is losing its mind.

This isn't financial advice, just my personal take from over eight years in this chaotic market. The data I'm seeing says 'caution,' even while the price screams 'euphoria.' So, am I being overly cautious, or is the market setting up the biggest bull trap we've seen all year?