Is this the signal we've been waiting for? For weeks, the market has been chopping sideways, driven by futures liquidations and derivative noise. But this morning, my entire routine was interrupted. Before I even had my Glassnode dashboard fully loaded, I saw the alert: CryptoQuant is reporting that spot demand for BTC has started to rise for the first time since the end of November 2025. This isn't paper trading. This is real money, buying real Bitcoin, and moving it off exchanges. In my eight years in this market, I've learned that while futures create the volatility, spot demand creates the trend. And this trend shift forces a critical question for every trader right now: which asset will lead the charge? The reliable king, Bitcoin, or its high-beta counterpart, Ethereum?

Let's be clear. The CryptoQuant data is specific to Bitcoin. This is institutional-level buying. It's quiet, it's steady, and it's happening on spot exchanges. Looking at the on-chain data, exchange netflows have been negative for 7 of the last 10 days. That's over $1.2 billion in BTC moving into cold storage. This is accumulation. The MVRV Z-Score, my go-to for cycle top analysis, is sitting at a healthy 2.6 — miles away from the 7+ territory that signals euphoria. This isn't a frothy, retail-driven pump. It's a base being built.

On the charts, my bitcoin price prediction this week is focused on a key reclamation. We need to see a daily close above the $69,100 resistance zone to confirm this spot buying has enough momentum to break the range. Support is firming up around $67,500, which was the scene of a major liquidation cascade last week. I added to my core BTC position around $66,800 yesterday, and I'm targeting a move toward $74,000 before Q2. This is the 'smart money' play. It's less explosive than alts, but the data suggests it's far more certain.

Now, look at Ethereum. It's up over 9% today while Bitcoin is up 5%. That's the classic high-beta relationship. When Bitcoin moves, ETH moves more. For swing traders, this is incredibly attractive. The ethereum price forecast is heavily tied to the success of its ecosystem, and as my colleague Luna Park often covers, the DeFi space is constantly innovating. A rising tide in crypto will undoubtedly lift the ETH boat, and likely faster than Bitcoin's.

But here's the catch. The on-chain data for ETH isn't showing that same foundational spot demand. Exchange flows are choppy, and a significant portion of the recent price action has been driven by derivative speculation, with funding rates on perpetual swaps getting frothy. While it's rallying hard off the lows near $1,900, it's now approaching major overhead resistance at $2,150. A failure here could send it right back down. Trading ETH right now is a bet on market sentiment, not necessarily on underlying accumulation. It's a momentum trade, and those can turn on a dime.

• Spot Demand: Clear winner is Bitcoin. The CryptoQuant data is the primary catalyst for this entire analysis.
• Narrative Strength: Tied. BTC has the 'digital gold' and inflation hedge narrative, which attracts big capital. ETH has the 'decentralized internet' and DeFi narrative, attracting developers and speculators.
• Risk Profile: Bitcoin is the lower-risk play. Its strength is coming from a verifiable source of demand. Ethereum's recent pump is more speculative, making it a higher-risk, higher-reward trade.
• Relative Value: This is where it gets tricky. Some might argue ETH is 'cheaper' and has more room to run. I argue that BTC showing this much spot demand while ETH lags is a signal of strength, not weakness.

I've survived multiple cycles, including the 2018 crash that taught me everything. The biggest lesson? Follow the spot flows, not the hype. While the macro picture that Jake Morrison paints is crucial, the on-chain crypto data provides a real-time edge he'd probably appreciate. Right now, the most reliable data we have points to a resurgence of foundational interest in Bitcoin. The price may not be as explosive as ETH or other alts in the short term, but this is the move with staying power.

I'm holding my swing trade positions in alts, but my conviction lies with my core BTC holding. My invalidation for this thesis would be a sharp reversal in exchange netflows (i.e., big spot inflows to exchanges for selling) and a loss of the $65,000 support level. Until that happens, I'm trusting the data. This is a classic case of the market building a foundation while everyone is distracted by the shiny objects.

This is my take based on over eight years of watching these flows. The market seems to be rewarding the high-beta ETH trade today, but is the real, sustainable move being quietly built in Bitcoin right under our noses?