Every time copper ticks up a few cents, my newsfeed explodes. 'The new commodity super cycle is here!' Pundits who couldn't find Cushing, Oklahoma on a map are suddenly experts on oil inventories. It's a classic sign of a top. I've seen this movie before. While everyone else is chasing momentum and listening to stories, I'm looking at the hard data. And the data tells me this isn't a super cycle. It's a supply-chain panic fueled by cheap money, and the hangover is coming.

Let's get one thing straight. A real super cycle isn't a two-year price spike. It's a decade-plus structural shift in demand. The last one was China. They urbanized a billion people. That was a once-in-a-century event. What's the driver this time? The 'green energy transition'? It's a great story, but the scale of demand for copper and lithium right now doesn't hold a candle to what China did for oil, iron ore, and concrete. Most traders are wrong about the sheer scale required. They're extrapolating a short-term trend into a permanent reality. Big mistake.

The current price action is all about supply, not demand. Pandemic shutdowns, years of underinvestment in new oil projects (thanks, ESG), and the mess in Ukraine have created bottlenecks. These are serious issues, but they are temporary. Supply always, always responds to price. At $90+ oil, rigs come back online. Shuttered mines reopen. That's basic economics. The macro picture that Jake Morrison often discusses is critical, but people are misapplying the inflation narrative to hard assets, thinking it means 'up only.' It doesn't.

Forget the stories and look at the price. My primary focus is on the WTI Crude (CL) futures chart. The longer-term commodities market outlook might seem bullish, but on the weekly chart, we're seeing exhaustion. Every push towards $100 gets sold off harder. That's not strength; it's a market struggling for air. Demand destruction is a real thing. At these prices, economies slow down. It’s an unavoidable feedback loop.

• Crude Oil (CL): Looking for a failed rally into the $92-$95 zone to initiate a short. My target is a retest of the $80 support level.
• Copper (HG): The chart looks heavy. A weekly close below $4.10 would signal a major momentum shift. The 'green energy' narrative would take a serious hit.
• Gold (GC): This is my exception. Gold isn't an industrial metal; it's money. I'm a trend follower here. As long as it holds above the $2,200 level, I'm adding to my physical position. It's a hedge against the central bankers, not a bet on industrial growth.

My gold thesis is completely separate from the rest of the complex. While a brilliant analyst like Emma Blackwood is looking for growth stories in equities, I'm focused on wealth preservation. Gold thrives on fear and monetary debasement, which we have in spades. It's the anti-asset. Don't lump it in with oil and lumber.

I'm not going all-in short just yet. I'm patient. I'm watching the Commitment of Traders (COT) report like I do every Friday. I'm waiting to see the 'smart money' commercials get heavily short while the speculators are piled in on the long side. That's the classic setup. When I see that alignment, I'll look for a technical breakdown on the 4-hour chart of CL—probably a break of the 21 EMA—to start a short position.

My stop loss will be a daily close above the most recent swing high. Simple. If I'm wrong, I'm out. I learned that lesson the hard way blowing up my first account on a natural gas trade. It was the best $30K tuition I ever paid. The biggest mistake traders are making is confusing a temporary supply shock with a permanent structural shift in demand. They're paying for a narrative, and the market will eventually make them pay the price.

The only thing that would make me flip my thesis is a major, unexpected geopolitical event that takes a few million barrels of oil per day offline permanently. A real shooting war in the Strait of Hormuz, for example. Barring that, the path of least resistance will eventually be lower as supply catches up and high prices curb demand. So I'll ask you this: are you trading the headline, or are you trading the chart? Let me know which one you think actually grows an account.